{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00c657d0-d800-4501-816e-33f978b7b9bc", "symbol": "X", "name": "TMX Group Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.187, "architecture_energy": 28.149, "architecture_maturity": 25.064, "architecture_confidence": 49.844, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.96, "rotation_up": 56.33, "upward_expansion": 43.43, "deceleration": 52.33, "rotation_down": 19.33, "downward_expansion": 11.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.874, 49.651819, 50.341741, 50.15632 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.139999, "trend_reference": 49.725005, "distance_from_trend": 0.048567, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.60839, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.691361, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.159076, "excess_performance": 0.038655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048567, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123367, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.116576, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2864000, "relative_activity": 0.942101, "balance": 2.116576, "dry_up": 1.368891, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046235, "annualized_volatility": 0.211076, "from_high_reference": -0.085516, "from_low_reference": 0.193769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.725005, "fair_value_reference": 43.60839, "structural_low": 43.676781, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.000225, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.00928, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.093028, "worst_return": -0.079976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.000663, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.020045, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.179434, "worst_return": -0.04808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012864, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.027255, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.279716, "worst_return": 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032536, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010114, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023315, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097938, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058661, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": 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49.29413, 50.348811, 49.981065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.400002, "volume": 3210400, "typical_volume": 3289810.0, "trend": 49.76639, "fair_value": 43.03659, "relative_strength": -15.162958, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.771587, "energy": 52.469953, "activity_lines": [ 47.521334, 48.831955, 50.198507, 49.887457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.630001, "volume": 3712900, "typical_volume": 3166860.0, "trend": 49.701383, "fair_value": 43.17113, "relative_strength": -12.253284, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.631985, "energy": 38.570316, "activity_lines": [ 48.127335, 48.717666, 50.153466, 49.878657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.93, "volume": 5061200, "typical_volume": 3173185.0, "trend": 49.648027, "fair_value": 43.309651, "relative_strength": -11.345907, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.691891, "energy": 10.32888, "activity_lines": [ 48.890001, 48.757273, 50.118786, 49.893407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.240002, "volume": 5007700, "typical_volume": 3140230.0, "trend": 49.656825, "fair_value": 43.459416, "relative_strength": -8.011599, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.751807, "energy": 16.556555, "activity_lines": [ 49.923335, 49.099274, 50.193068, 49.996115 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.139999, "volume": 2864000, "typical_volume": 3040015.0, "trend": 49.725005, "fair_value": 43.60839, "relative_strength": -8.691361, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.186975, "energy": 28.148982, "activity_lines": [ 50.874, 49.651819, 50.341741, 50.15632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }