{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00cae8ed-178e-41ae-9cb1-3a0a2953b5d2", "symbol": "KD", "name": "Kyndryl Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.779, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.016, "architecture_energy": 16.053, "architecture_maturity": 18.713, "architecture_confidence": 62.705, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.49, "rotation_up": 39.84, "upward_expansion": 32.86, "deceleration": 45.85, "rotation_down": 14.46, "downward_expansion": 41.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.114667, 12.544909, 12.405143, 12.697269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.02, "trend_reference": 14.029, "distance_from_trend": -0.000642, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.718397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432811, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.7551, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.40315, "excess_performance": -0.528775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000642, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250908, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432811, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.387551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212974, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.40315, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.771662, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28401542, "relative_activity": 1.396066, "balance": 1.771662, "dry_up": 1.125493, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102568, "annualized_volatility": 1.037991, "from_high_reference": -0.586431, "from_low_reference": 0.388119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.029, "fair_value_reference": 24.718397, "structural_low": 10.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.078688, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.077842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109698, "worst_return": 0.047678, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.307393, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.298472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.520668, "worst_return": 0.094118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.26056, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.240842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.359752, "worst_return": 0.161367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.249418, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067883, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401858, "worst_return": 0.096979, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010443, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05617, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077358, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.19271, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022184, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.185427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.373854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004374, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098836, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024038, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.567783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.8, "volume": 9480195, "typical_volume": 8531360.7, "trend": 13.983, "fair_value": 13.666979, "relative_strength": 17.390124, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.116204, "energy": 47.709664, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.009598, "energy": 28.463289, "activity_lines": [ 11.934667, 11.832, 12.173095, 13.025763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.05, "volume": 18341072, "typical_volume": 19397642.5, "trend": 14.868, "fair_value": 24.726731, "relative_strength": -47.363134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.108599, "energy": 21.368888, "activity_lines": [ 12.038667, 11.875818, 12.138571, 12.811333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.55, "volume": 24486447, "typical_volume": 19891832.6, "trend": 14.47, "fair_value": 24.732051, "relative_strength": -39.922778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.288815, "energy": 10.970917, "activity_lines": [ 12.572667, 12.179091, 12.252333, 12.726301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.02, "volume": 28401542, "typical_volume": 20343977.65, "trend": 14.029, "fair_value": 24.718397, "relative_strength": -38.7551, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.016402, "energy": 16.052558, "activity_lines": [ 13.114667, 12.544909, 12.405143, 12.697269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }