{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00cbcb63-117d-402d-aced-960a3e242b3e", "symbol": "4943", "name": "Concraft Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.78, "architecture_energy": 40.479, "architecture_maturity": 76.695, "architecture_confidence": 86.197, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.26, "rotation_up": 26.65, "upward_expansion": 5.44, "deceleration": 59.54, "rotation_down": 46.72, "downward_expansion": 78.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.725333, 8.787818, 8.995286, 9.459914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.58, "trend_reference": 10.148667, "distance_from_trend": -0.154569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.330449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.401275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.703055, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.253913, "excess_performance": -0.695285, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138508, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.401275, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03103, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.447031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.977008, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140332, "relative_activity": 0.828385, "balance": 0.977008, "dry_up": 0.583285, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085888, "annualized_volatility": 0.233415, "from_high_reference": -0.541176, "from_low_reference": 0.079245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.148667, "fair_value_reference": 14.330449, "structural_low": 7.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.039598, "positive_rate": 0.309524, "directional_follow_through": 0.690476, "median_excess_return": -0.048441, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.5727, "worst_return": -0.382569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.173021, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.194157, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.808237, "worst_return": -0.482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.085143, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.160637, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.317152, "worst_return": -0.550974, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064171, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151515, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.166038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022936, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.204633, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156463, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.147287, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.216438, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 14.4, "volume": 85787, "typical_volume": 241211.3, "trend": 18.66197, "fair_value": 76.37719, "relative_strength": -34.048718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"activity_lines": [ 8.916667, 8.989636, 9.478952, 10.041355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.68, "volume": 130359, "typical_volume": 172716.05, "trend": 10.676667, "fair_value": 14.483269, "relative_strength": -42.832173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.062269, "energy": 50.778062, "activity_lines": [ 8.816, 8.920182, 9.346476, 9.900882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.89, "volume": 36667, "typical_volume": 164407.45, "trend": 10.531333, "fair_value": 14.444744, "relative_strength": -42.123734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.783799, "energy": 47.463701, "activity_lines": [ 8.810667, 8.900727, 9.247667, 9.785613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.84, "volume": 119930, "typical_volume": 167778.2, "trend": 10.412667, "fair_value": 14.407179, "relative_strength": -41.019004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.648332, "energy": 44.987229, "activity_lines": [ 8.8, 8.880364, 9.160571, 9.676495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.75, "volume": 98315, "typical_volume": 165734.2, "trend": 10.274333, "fair_value": 14.37032, "relative_strength": -42.342765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.354704, "energy": 41.927697, "activity_lines": [ 8.782667, 8.845455, 9.079952, 9.569226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.58, "volume": 140332, "typical_volume": 169404.3, "trend": 10.148667, "fair_value": 14.330449, "relative_strength": -44.703055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.78001, "energy": 40.478522, "activity_lines": [ 8.725333, 8.787818, 8.995286, 9.459914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }