{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00ccee98-e2ec-4b27-a918-6a13481dd279", "symbol": "000411", "name": "Zhejiang Int'l Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.017, "architecture_energy": 34.878, "architecture_maturity": 83.783, "architecture_confidence": 61.91, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.54, "rotation_up": 25.66, "upward_expansion": 16.81, "deceleration": 66.81, "rotation_down": 34.73, "downward_expansion": 62.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.44, 9.341621, 9.899857, 10.312775 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.65, "trend_reference": 10.979469, "distance_from_trend": -0.121087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.609679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090453, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.505592, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.227382, "excess_performance": -0.234782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07466, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090453, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09292, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061563, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227382, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.832011, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20096324, "relative_activity": 0.702224, "balance": 1.832011, "dry_up": 0.849734, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087013, "annualized_volatility": 0.357308, "from_high_reference": -0.327994, "from_low_reference": 0.113951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.979469, "fair_value_reference": 10.609679, "structural_low": 8.662857, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.008112, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.002032, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.113333, "worst_return": -0.258317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.021452, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013019, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.103774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0108, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022628, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.136177, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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9.165945, 9.959446, 10.479287, 10.930131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.31, "volume": 19070988, "typical_volume": 28354319.85, "trend": 11.397469, "fair_value": 10.660768, "relative_strength": -26.650616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.604535, "energy": 83.893957, "activity_lines": [ 9.12434, 9.758645, 10.330267, 10.788445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.4, "volume": 33846052, "typical_volume": 29036948.45, "trend": 11.327802, "fair_value": 10.648474, "relative_strength": -18.071435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.942282, "energy": 70.425942, "activity_lines": [ 9.222957, 9.597661, 10.203105, 10.659576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.08, "volume": 25525612, "typical_volume": 28673460.0, "trend": 11.194802, "fair_value": 10.636051, "relative_strength": -20.575258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.464457, "energy": 53.824623, "activity_lines": [ 9.197208, 9.403587, 10.059086, 10.514556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.5, "volume": 17803129, "typical_volume": 28596286.35, "trend": 11.082802, "fair_value": 10.623616, "relative_strength": -15.107007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.163268, "energy": 44.731338, "activity_lines": [ 9.321509, 9.33515, 9.967543, 10.405214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.65, "volume": 20096324, "typical_volume": 28618107.4, "trend": 10.979469, "fair_value": 10.609679, "relative_strength": -17.505592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.016658, "energy": 34.87788, "activity_lines": [ 9.44, 9.341621, 9.899857, 10.312775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }