{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00cd5de6-e7c6-42e8-a284-bcd2a0ddb9f1", "symbol": "CS", "name": "AXA SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.653, "architecture_energy": 82.806, "architecture_maturity": 43.016, "architecture_confidence": 92.668, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 74.46, "upward_expansion": 97.05, "deceleration": 41.28, "rotation_down": 17.64, "downward_expansion": 19.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.933999, 44.276181, 42.539534, 41.213424 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 45.049999, "trend_reference": 39.597398, "distance_from_trend": 0.137701, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.110209, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.360607, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.624968, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.203966, "excess_performance": 0.150654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137701, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054264, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.360607, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130031, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08625, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081519, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.203966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.906911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11771224, "relative_activity": 0.865319, "balance": 2.906911, "dry_up": 0.861856, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026996, "annualized_volatility": 0.23387, "from_high_reference": -0.01336, "from_low_reference": 0.30641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.597398, "fair_value_reference": 33.110209, "structural_low": 34.483819, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.014504, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": 0.011025, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.117706, "worst_return": -0.189843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.048979, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007713, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.186191, "worst_return": -0.104485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.112184, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.069058, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.196391, "worst_return": -0.038823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.470368, "energy": 90.820315, "activity_lines": [ 44.466, 43.384909, 41.650904, 40.461247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.099998, "volume": 13906613, "typical_volume": 14650599.85, "trend": 39.353376, "fair_value": 32.971993, "relative_strength": 11.425682, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.770998, "energy": 88.413375, "activity_lines": [ 44.764666, 43.880363, 42.118945, 40.8459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.049999, "volume": 11771224, "typical_volume": 13603334.45, "trend": 39.597398, "fair_value": 33.110209, "relative_strength": 8.624968, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.653167, "energy": 82.805536, "activity_lines": [ 44.933999, 44.276181, 42.539534, 41.213424 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }