{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00df9e53-2b7e-421b-8daf-df99eb668632", "symbol": "603681", "name": "Shanghai Yongguan Adhesive Products Corp., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 82.018, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.203, "architecture_energy": 53.328, "architecture_maturity": 8.898, "architecture_confidence": 70.356, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.02, "rotation_up": 16.18, "upward_expansion": 17.53, "deceleration": 46.49, "rotation_down": 68.81, "downward_expansion": 56.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.525999, 19.129359, 20.201601, 20.09935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.379999, "trend_reference": 20.114338, "distance_from_trend": -0.086224, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.067554, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.31017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086027, "excess_performance": -0.042823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086224, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035203, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21984, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055131, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.720537, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35994237, "relative_activity": 0.846675, "balance": 0.720537, "dry_up": 0.980334, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142869, "annualized_volatility": 0.508333, "from_high_reference": -0.356932, "from_low_reference": 0.229431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.114338, "fair_value_reference": 15.067554, "structural_low": 15.7, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.072273, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.017664, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.215746, "worst_return": -0.170957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096077, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.093585, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.37262, "worst_return": -0.219892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021289, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.394039, "worst_return": -0.111364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.318041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.03777, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022093, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 43319408.65, "trend": 20.227338, "fair_value": 15.024169, "relative_strength": -8.29408, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.819174, "energy": 39.663185, "activity_lines": [ 18.526585, 20.634637, 20.678745, 20.449135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.559999, "volume": 39776819, "typical_volume": 42560280.4, "trend": 20.134338, "fair_value": 15.040405, "relative_strength": -9.387544, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.278654, "energy": 46.691638, "activity_lines": [ 17.515896, 19.666089, 20.346697, 20.212533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.379999, "volume": 35994237, "typical_volume": 42512461.8, "trend": 20.114338, "fair_value": 15.067554, "relative_strength": -2.31017, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.202919, "energy": 53.328046, "activity_lines": [ 17.525999, 19.129359, 20.201601, 20.09935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }