{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00e0445c-eef7-4c03-8f86-923bb2f89079", "symbol": "ALRPR", "name": "Alrov Properties and Lodgings Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.782, "architecture_energy": 67.229, "architecture_maturity": 83.096, "architecture_confidence": 93.878, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 29.86, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.81, "rotation_down": 55.92, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 254.853333, 260.198182, 7594.874152, 12609.803834 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 258.7, "trend_reference": 18124.710768, "distance_from_trend": -0.985727, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17892.660543, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.956271, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990329, "excess_performance": -1.019229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.985727, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.343286, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985542, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.537995, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.989563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.851958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990329, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.849922, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1608, "relative_activity": 0.553776, "balance": 0.849922, "dry_up": 0.94371, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 10.889953, "annualized_volatility": 6.328995, "from_high_reference": -0.991779, "from_low_reference": 0.110777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18124.710768, "fair_value_reference": 17892.660543, "structural_low": 232.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.009222, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003907, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.202133, "worst_return": -0.127066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012924, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006829, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.035702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104358, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.061633, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.44012, "worst_return": -0.285459, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 1354, "typical_volume": 3080.15, "trend": 19790.874675, "fair_value": 18100.829496, "relative_strength": -99.048795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.809255, "energy": 69.01199, "activity_lines": [ 254.866667, 1836.234545, 10585.628979, 15076.55044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 255.0, "volume": 624, "typical_volume": 2861.55, "trend": 18957.397721, "fair_value": 17996.124218, "relative_strength": -98.992338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.241583, "energy": 68.003439, "activity_lines": [ 253.726667, 793.198182, 9024.231955, 13816.171429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 258.7, "volume": 1608, "typical_volume": 2903.7, "trend": 18124.710768, "fair_value": 17892.660543, "relative_strength": -98.956271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.78166, "energy": 67.229496, "activity_lines": [ 254.853333, 260.198182, 7594.874152, 12609.803834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }