{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00e146a9-2b1c-487b-abf6-33b44a536ee1", "symbol": "XKSD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Korea UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.318, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.27, "architecture_energy": 24.184, "architecture_maturity": 64.861, "architecture_confidence": 69.75, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.2, "rotation_up": 14.36, "upward_expansion": 42.71, "deceleration": 87.85, "rotation_down": 47.32, "downward_expansion": 36.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 209.225333, 222.90991, 227.719335, 216.978335 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 210.470001, "trend_reference": 200.780834, "distance_from_trend": 0.048257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.794356, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.047486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.761155, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.339038, "excess_performance": 0.287803, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.047486, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.63991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.217612, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.65214, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.339038, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.286877, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25626, "relative_activity": 1.369459, "balance": 0.286877, "dry_up": 3.226466, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113893, "annualized_volatility": 0.561772, "from_high_reference": -0.232226, "from_low_reference": 1.419613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 200.780834, "fair_value_reference": 102.794356, "structural_low": 144.429993, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023564, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021626, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.33295, "worst_return": -0.061835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073101, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.080756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.571241, "worst_return": -0.04752, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.034497, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058767, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.061611, "worst_return": -0.112601, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 211.429993, "volume": 20699, "typical_volume": 14200.6, "trend": 195.993, "fair_value": 101.13801, "relative_strength": 27.037927, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.230715, "energy": 25.534368, "activity_lines": [ 221.990664, 235.149274, 229.682906, 215.872818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 201.050003, "volume": 80372, "typical_volume": 17534.5, "trend": 198.3915, "fair_value": 101.927753, "relative_strength": 18.017298, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.931922, "energy": 23.491784, "activity_lines": [ 212.290998, 227.842547, 228.349787, 216.199077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 210.470001, "volume": 25626, "typical_volume": 18712.5, "trend": 200.780834, "fair_value": 102.794356, "relative_strength": 21.761155, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.270232, "energy": 24.18385, "activity_lines": [ 209.225333, 222.90991, 227.719335, 216.978335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }