{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00e6473e-0260-4790-b984-f69b95b873ea", "symbol": "OILU", "name": "Bank of Montreal", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.279, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.593, "architecture_energy": 19.406, "architecture_maturity": 21.681, "architecture_confidence": 48.529, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.29, "rotation_up": 52.95, "upward_expansion": 32.38, "deceleration": 45.84, "rotation_down": 17.32, "downward_expansion": 21.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.448333, 39.960182, 40.777333, 41.638731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.525, "trend_reference": 41.068167, "distance_from_trend": -0.013226, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.990642, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19224, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.104144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.121644, "excess_performance": -0.003981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013226, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139131, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19224, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000418, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081041, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155259, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121644, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816435, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 551610, "relative_activity": 0.546122, "balance": 0.816435, "dry_up": 0.883996, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151525, "annualized_volatility": 0.81656, "from_high_reference": -0.340169, "from_low_reference": 1.048787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.068167, "fair_value_reference": 33.990642, "structural_low": 31.26, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002022, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030022, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.445556, "worst_return": -0.362755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.169498, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.215636, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.755416, "worst_return": -0.204847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027104, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.092205, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.416699, "worst_return": -0.183704, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.638465, "energy": 51.735817, "activity_lines": [ 34.804, 38.186182, 41.460476, 40.88386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.97, "volume": 876666, "typical_volume": 1215974.7, "trend": 38.473333, "fair_value": 33.986903, "relative_strength": 1.861868, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.606457, "energy": 50.530637, "activity_lines": [ 34.578667, 37.319273, 40.784667, 40.747548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.73, "volume": 1128520, "typical_volume": 1195621.65, "trend": 39.102667, "fair_value": 33.995236, "relative_strength": 16.248187, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.658715, "energy": 36.261481, "activity_lines": [ 36.354667, 37.553636, 40.577905, 40.89314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.65, "volume": 956924, "typical_volume": 1070399.05, "trend": 39.882, "fair_value": 34.019915, "relative_strength": 29.701473, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.283238, "energy": 6.405082, "activity_lines": [ 39.832, 38.671636, 40.841619, 41.315548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.93, "volume": 934464, "typical_volume": 1040945.95, "trend": 40.563667, "fair_value": 34.032533, "relative_strength": 25.009729, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.62798, "energy": 18.520964, "activity_lines": [ 42.252, 39.694909, 41.020381, 41.641226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.525, "volume": 551610, "typical_volume": 1010049.1, "trend": 41.068167, "fair_value": 33.990642, "relative_strength": 8.104144, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.592778, "energy": 19.405538, "activity_lines": [ 42.448333, 39.960182, 40.777333, 41.638731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }