{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "00e95a38-43a0-4df0-a6b1-8accf7e9c976",
    "symbol": "ESGA",
    "name": "BMO MSCI Canada Selection Equity Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 80.647,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 87.157,
    "architecture_energy": 72.308,
    "architecture_maturity": 36.954,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.707,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.26,
        "rotation_up": 69.88,
        "upward_expansion": 88.44,
        "deceleration": 51.11,
        "rotation_down": 20.31,
        "downward_expansion": 12.77
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        56.274667,
        55.96055,
        55.096474,
        54.413643
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 57.27,
    "trend_reference": 53.691099,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.066657,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 41.314256,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.386204,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.123108,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.112741,
    "excess_performance": -0.007681,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066657,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027992,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.386204,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042434,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021231,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025632,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.112741,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.424528,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4200,
      "relative_activity": 1.802575,
      "balance": 1.424528,
      "dry_up": 1.212446,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.016124,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.135191,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003133,
      "from_low_reference": 0.245453
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 53.691099,
      "fair_value_reference": 41.314256,
      "structural_low": 50.055,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 41,
        "median_return": 0.011236,
        "positive_rate": 0.682927,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.682927,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001319,
        "regime_survival": 0.756098,
        "best_return": 0.062731,
        "worst_return": -0.057639,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.031471,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00286,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 0.176876,
        "worst_return": -0.096525,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.071699,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007132,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.185168,
        "worst_return": -0.017559,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.1737,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.040451,
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        "worst_return": -0.089857,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010967,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
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        "return": -0.073637,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.056555,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 53.869999,
        "volume": 4300,
        "typical_volume": 6296.2,
        "trend": 51.724146,
        "fair_value": 38.929426,
        "relative_strength": -2.197311,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.876107,
        "energy": 44.154231,
        "activity_lines": [
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          52.290354
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 53.177872,
        "volume": 2400,
        "typical_volume": 6018.1,
        "trend": 51.820498,
        "fair_value": 39.074741,
        "relative_strength": -3.362299,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.538496,
        "energy": 50.961883,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 52.700226,
        "volume": 2000,
        "typical_volume": 5834.45,
        "trend": 51.938408,
        "fair_value": 39.218186,
        "relative_strength": -4.68629,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.221033,
        "energy": 49.050121,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 52.103168,
        "volume": 1100,
        "typical_volume": 5789.95,
        "trend": 52.01353,
        "fair_value": 39.359412,
        "relative_strength": -4.997185,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.563178,
        "energy": 20.067203,
        "activity_lines": [
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          52.627646,
          52.451529
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 53.605762,
        "volume": 2900,
        "typical_volume": 5795.0,
        "trend": 52.112537,
        "fair_value": 39.51474,
        "relative_strength": -3.996941,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.787898,
        "energy": 18.232184,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.984527,
          53.003042,
          52.724614,
          52.554253
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 53.993847,
        "volume": 700,
        "typical_volume": 5235.0,
        "trend": 52.229123,
        "fair_value": 39.672793,
        "relative_strength": -4.049958,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.319569,
        "energy": 26.075359,
        "activity_lines": [
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          52.849498,
          52.675628
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 54.441639,
        "volume": 300,
        "typical_volume": 5100.0,
        "trend": 52.397451,
        "fair_value": 39.833419,
        "relative_strength": -2.210174,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.508622,
        "energy": 38.790642,
        "activity_lines": [
          53.727162,
          53.531818,
          53.013335,
          52.818371
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 54.690414,
        "volume": 1100,
        "typical_volume": 4805.0,
        "trend": 52.560805,
        "fair_value": 39.992601,
        "relative_strength": -3.183032,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.072654,
        "energy": 65.329569,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 55.197914,
        "volume": 1100,
        "typical_volume": 4585.0,
        "trend": 52.751357,
        "fair_value": 40.160459,
        "relative_strength": -2.321668,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.347424,
        "energy": 76.137733,
        "activity_lines": [
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          53.42394,
          53.13644
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 55.586002,
        "volume": 300,
        "typical_volume": 3480.0,
        "trend": 52.892492,
        "fair_value": 40.323607,
        "relative_strength": -1.621694,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.907682,
        "energy": 80.126586,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.044669,
          54.3634,
          53.668059,
          53.319321
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 55.939999,
        "volume": 500,
        "typical_volume": 2785.0,
        "trend": 53.051065,
        "fair_value": 40.492269,
        "relative_strength": -1.694052,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.13931,
        "energy": 85.9369,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.430681,
          54.727639,
          53.92628,
          53.515934
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 55.810001,
        "volume": 6400,
        "typical_volume": 2780.0,
        "trend": 53.191043,
        "fair_value": 40.654992,
        "relative_strength": -2.033675,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.998759,
        "energy": 84.375581,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.643617,
          55.030606,
          54.15537,
          53.69393
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 56.150002,
        "volume": 1400,
        "typical_volume": 2745.0,
        "trend": 53.324445,
        "fair_value": 40.817671,
        "relative_strength": -1.260269,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.885641,
        "energy": 88.571377,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.878662,
          55.347534,
          54.406916,
          53.884831
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 55.220001,
        "volume": 3100,
        "typical_volume": 2505.0,
        "trend": 53.412916,
        "fair_value": 40.974389,
        "relative_strength": -3.08927,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.996054,
        "energy": 76.795811,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.706401,
          55.432648,
          54.561708,
          54.007125
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 56.0,
        "volume": 2600,
        "typical_volume": 2310.0,
        "trend": 53.556041,
        "fair_value": 41.140432,
        "relative_strength": -1.259277,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.628418,
        "energy": 59.823644,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.792667,
          55.60291,
          54.779169,
          54.174033
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 57.27,
        "volume": 4200,
        "typical_volume": 2330.0,
        "trend": 53.691099,
        "fair_value": 41.314256,
        "relative_strength": -2.123108,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.156788,
        "energy": 72.307841,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.274667,
          55.96055,
          55.096474,
          54.413643
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}