{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00f104bf-4cf2-4be9-a0c5-bd3272f04004", "symbol": "MQQQ", "name": "TRADR 2X LONG INNOVATION 100 MONTHLY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.578, "architecture_energy": 20.361, "architecture_maturity": 71.567, "architecture_confidence": 91.89, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.96, "rotation_up": 26.54, "upward_expansion": 50.48, "deceleration": 82.13, "rotation_down": 35.57, "downward_expansion": 28.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 220.992107, 224.769893, 224.987354, 214.722996 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 232.9865, "trend_reference": 202.341133, "distance_from_trend": 0.151454, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 163.795849, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.42242, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.243927, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.311323, "excess_performance": 0.123869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151454, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08135, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.42242, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.072439, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.311323, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.357232, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146322, "relative_activity": 0.54387, "balance": 1.357232, "dry_up": 0.657952, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085544, "annualized_volatility": 0.420294, "from_high_reference": -0.082261, "from_low_reference": 0.602482 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 202.341133, "fair_value_reference": 163.795849, "structural_low": 145.391, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.266035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107239, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": 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"relative_strength": 3.011964, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.998726, "energy": 20.136723, "activity_lines": [ 217.095813, 224.059993, 223.007089, 212.650103 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 232.9865, "volume": 146322, "typical_volume": 269038.75, "trend": 202.341133, "fair_value": 163.795849, "relative_strength": 7.243927, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.578421, "energy": 20.36137, "activity_lines": [ 220.992107, 224.769893, 224.987354, 214.722996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }