{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00f5b198-e8db-4cf6-be89-3bc0de4d19a9", "symbol": "VGL", "name": "VARVEE GLOBAL LIMITED", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.401, "architecture_energy": 19.733, "architecture_maturity": 14.914, "architecture_confidence": 54.749, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.53, "rotation_up": 15.68, "upward_expansion": 14.17, "deceleration": 61.79, "rotation_down": 57.27, "downward_expansion": 41.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.596667, 63.172, 63.840715, 63.10057 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 61.279999, "trend_reference": 62.934334, "distance_from_trend": -0.026287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.459103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.69221, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.057448, "excess_performance": -0.013739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046047, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131212, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018791, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057448, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.244714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 136387, "relative_activity": 0.253641, "balance": 7.244714, "dry_up": 0.175501, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092099, "annualized_volatility": 0.459813, "from_high_reference": -0.37771, "from_low_reference": 0.402288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.934334, "fair_value_reference": 46.459103, "structural_low": 43.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.03383, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.040287, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.099858, "worst_return": -0.187939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.062395, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042087, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.101727, "worst_return": -0.382155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05061, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.044582, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.302428, "worst_return": -0.144781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.006694, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046411, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011516, "worst_return": -0.024904, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025501, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032819, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.263445, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.170475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.506006, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016502, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049518, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055196, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.825, "volume": 669636, "typical_volume": 371603.7, "trend": 10.841667, "fair_value": 10.903686, "relative_strength": -4.733125, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", 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"typical_volume": 541531.8, "trend": 63.700167, "fair_value": 45.817724, "relative_strength": -9.022687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.751495, "energy": 18.272412, "activity_lines": [ 62.364, 64.631637, 63.91781, 63.323571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.200001, "volume": 66839, "typical_volume": 537077.9, "trend": 63.236334, "fair_value": 46.142724, "relative_strength": -9.362404, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.354864, "energy": 18.280048, "activity_lines": [ 62.006, 63.937819, 63.926906, 63.226786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.279999, "volume": 136387, "typical_volume": 537716.1, "trend": 62.934334, "fair_value": 46.459103, "relative_strength": -10.69221, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.400539, "energy": 19.732883, "activity_lines": [ 61.596667, 63.172, 63.840715, 63.10057 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }