{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00f6e269-aac4-4599-899d-139667a93f62", "symbol": "MDTC34", "name": "Medtronic plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 87.167, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.118, "architecture_energy": 14.244, "architecture_maturity": 15.514, "architecture_confidence": 53.141, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.66, "rotation_up": 38.67, "upward_expansion": 36.23, "deceleration": 38.02, "rotation_down": 15.59, "downward_expansion": 42.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.9555, 53.573156, 52.344579, 53.329146 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 54.75, "trend_reference": 55.738921, "distance_from_trend": -0.017742, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.89682, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020517, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.455565, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.188854, "excess_performance": -0.131805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017742, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067396, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020517, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146672, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.244043, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 16.479305, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13, "relative_activity": 0.006114, "balance": 16.479305, "dry_up": 0.041151, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043029, "annualized_volatility": 0.263899, "from_high_reference": -0.195864, "from_low_reference": 0.19884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.738921, "fair_value_reference": 55.89682, "structural_low": 45.669159, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011104, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004309, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.089922, "worst_return": -0.086239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.020709, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006131, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035814, "worst_return": -0.15008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075561, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.057763, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.082245, "worst_return": -0.106889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035513, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012317, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01536, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039588, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027621, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031687, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077443, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02346, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 47.172352, "volume": 168, "typical_volume": 1768.4, "trend": 48.611213, "fair_value": 60.196907, "relative_strength": -7.080188, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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51.93474, 54.076044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.494999, "volume": 184, "typical_volume": 2136.0, "trend": 56.919772, "fair_value": 55.783192, "relative_strength": -16.150377, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.90223, "energy": 20.075829, "activity_lines": [ 53.403208, 52.474971, 51.960366, 53.826233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.470001, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 2136.2, "trend": 56.426523, "fair_value": 55.805946, "relative_strength": -17.232744, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.064146, "energy": 16.871598, "activity_lines": [ 53.172833, 52.660744, 51.925527, 53.539151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.5, "volume": 93, "typical_volume": 2138.65, "trend": 56.078555, "fair_value": 55.848543, "relative_strength": -15.180673, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.538607, "energy": 9.54383, "activity_lines": [ 53.580833, 53.142171, 52.115766, 53.414859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.75, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 2126.3, "trend": 55.738921, "fair_value": 55.89682, "relative_strength": -11.455565, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.118179, "energy": 14.243744, "activity_lines": [ 53.9555, 53.573156, 52.344579, 53.329146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }