{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00fdb5cd-837c-445a-9044-40a4e2e62fe0", "symbol": "002708", "name": "Changzhou Nrb Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.362, "architecture_energy": 76.884, "architecture_maturity": 19.818, "architecture_confidence": 78.841, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.32, "rotation_up": 8.44, "upward_expansion": 17.63, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 77.67, "downward_expansion": 93.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.079333, 11.187636, 12.478762, 12.77028 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.52, "trend_reference": 13.112667, "distance_from_trend": -0.197722, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.390833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.582554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228739, "excess_performance": -0.236139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197722, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015689, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.438803, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.417118, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74189179, "relative_activity": 0.789524, "balance": 1.417118, "dry_up": 0.975262, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178268, "annualized_volatility": 0.723393, "from_high_reference": -0.362424, "from_low_reference": 0.221835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.112667, "fair_value_reference": 10.390833, "structural_low": 8.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.11875, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.1875, "median_excess_return": 0.087463, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.336347, "worst_return": -0.068123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.200566, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.13945, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.336049, "worst_return": -0.003431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.264616, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.263325, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.412698, "worst_return": 0.147488, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"direction": -28.926432, "energy": 22.856373, "activity_lines": [ 12.988667, 13.735636, 13.767048, 13.661118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.79, "volume": 114297674, "typical_volume": 88936409.5, "trend": 13.409667, "fair_value": 10.344936, "relative_strength": -25.012053, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.637283, "energy": 57.664753, "activity_lines": [ 11.809333, 12.933091, 13.408286, 13.421634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.53, "volume": 91484248, "typical_volume": 90245758.7, "trend": 13.311667, "fair_value": 10.354744, "relative_strength": -26.922226, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.645884, "energy": 78.902674, "activity_lines": [ 10.764, 12.165818, 13.043571, 13.171333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.78, "volume": 86598565, "typical_volume": 92013340.7, "trend": 13.204667, "fair_value": 10.366795, "relative_strength": -23.539368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.252513, "energy": 80.6596, "activity_lines": [ 10.178667, 11.553091, 12.718952, 12.943484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.52, "volume": 74189179, "typical_volume": 93967004.65, "trend": 13.112667, "fair_value": 10.390833, "relative_strength": -21.582554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.361652, "energy": 76.883589, "activity_lines": [ 10.079333, 11.187636, 12.478762, 12.77028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }