{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01023bf1-a9b8-46b2-88ee-a6e258a7fb07", "symbol": "ACO-X", "name": "ATCO Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.732, "architecture_energy": 68.445, "architecture_maturity": 30.344, "architecture_confidence": 76.495, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.87, "rotation_up": 75.11, "upward_expansion": 88.84, "deceleration": 50.07, "rotation_down": 12.09, "downward_expansion": 13.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.856666, 76.418727, 73.74022, 71.689297 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 75.57, "trend_reference": 68.432407, "distance_from_trend": 0.104301, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.35359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.595866, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.406934, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.280992, "excess_performance": 0.16057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104301, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.595866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063019, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.104069, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009889, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.280992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.952075, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1152200, "relative_activity": 1.070783, "balance": 0.952075, "dry_up": 1.040882, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041571, "annualized_volatility": 0.235606, "from_high_reference": -0.071736, "from_low_reference": 0.630334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.432407, "fair_value_reference": 47.35359, "structural_low": 57.880829, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.008998, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.00024, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.091213, "worst_return": -0.084932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012629, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.015203, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.185246, "worst_return": -0.124265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043875, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.047129, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.273642, "worst_return": -0.221575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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72.386615, 70.6367, 68.637351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 78.449997, "volume": 1061200, "typical_volume": 1134195.0, "trend": 66.154411, "fair_value": 46.477528, "relative_strength": 19.760783, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.665263, "energy": 93.73673, "activity_lines": [ 75.451999, 73.692702, 71.516647, 69.482493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.75, "volume": 1127000, "typical_volume": 1114520.0, "trend": 66.983149, "fair_value": 46.776602, "relative_strength": 20.803233, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.968939, "energy": 93.587474, "activity_lines": [ 77.283332, 75.0383, 72.45339, 70.359628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.809998, "volume": 1139700, "typical_volume": 1101660.0, "trend": 67.786977, "fair_value": 47.081537, "relative_strength": 20.828248, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.040365, "energy": 90.300283, "activity_lines": [ 78.463999, 76.192545, 73.330397, 71.187166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.57, "volume": 1152200, "typical_volume": 1076035.0, "trend": 68.432407, "fair_value": 47.35359, "relative_strength": 10.406934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.732063, "energy": 68.445439, "activity_lines": [ 77.856666, 76.418727, 73.74022, 71.689297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }