{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01118d7c-ca08-414f-b51a-fc169218f1e9", "symbol": "MCFT", "name": "MCBC Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.841, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.739, "architecture_energy": 25.412, "architecture_maturity": 18.535, "architecture_confidence": 59.973, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.62, "rotation_up": 42.42, "upward_expansion": 73.03, "deceleration": 62.26, "rotation_down": 21.29, "downward_expansion": 2.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.293333, 24.215091, 23.946857, 23.46171 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.36, "trend_reference": 22.977167, "distance_from_trend": 0.060183, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.536987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.434129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032181, "excess_performance": -0.219635, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060183, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074168, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032181, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.812707, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1019862, "relative_activity": 1.38696, "balance": 0.812707, "dry_up": 1.020991, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091633, "annualized_volatility": 0.440726, "from_high_reference": -0.14346, "from_low_reference": 0.417103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.977167, "fair_value_reference": 20.536987, "structural_low": 18.78, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.024242, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.013805, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.145772, "worst_return": -0.178661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008368, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.186319, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.248369, "worst_return": -0.230601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057325, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.117959, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143954, "worst_return": -0.226655, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066017, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.182011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 20.577308, "relative_strength": 2.731452, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.404862, "energy": 28.704011, "activity_lines": [ 24.45, 24.094727, 23.76719, 23.288054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.92, "volume": 730007, "typical_volume": 732733.55, "trend": 22.877833, "fair_value": 20.553205, "relative_strength": 0.679676, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.628988, "energy": 24.701643, "activity_lines": [ 24.247333, 24.119273, 23.846286, 23.366086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.36, "volume": 1019862, "typical_volume": 735322.1, "trend": 22.977167, "fair_value": 20.536987, "relative_strength": -2.434129, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.7386, "energy": 25.411822, "activity_lines": [ 24.293333, 24.215091, 23.946857, 23.46171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }