{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01146ad6-6313-4894-8a88-60de2bda5c03", "symbol": "MUKTAARTS", "name": "Mukta Arts Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.865, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.017, "architecture_energy": 11.14, "architecture_maturity": 17.664, "architecture_confidence": 70.182, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.47, "rotation_up": 19.98, "upward_expansion": 39.77, "deceleration": 83.78, "rotation_down": 34.84, "downward_expansion": 33.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.659333, 56.524909, 57.263666, 55.909871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 57.0, "trend_reference": 55.475, "distance_from_trend": 0.02749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 71.621154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.204146, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.8069, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.061574, "excess_performance": -0.017865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02749, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.204146, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057491, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.769306, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9947, "relative_activity": 0.198578, "balance": 4.769306, "dry_up": 0.372675, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12135, "annualized_volatility": 0.570535, "from_high_reference": -0.32304, "from_low_reference": 0.540124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.475, "fair_value_reference": 71.621154, "structural_low": 37.009998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.035652, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.017037, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.151151, "worst_return": -0.102414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003831, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.008851, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.494186, "worst_return": -0.112186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.098082, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.074173, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.522433, "worst_return": -0.207228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035073, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159012, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003567, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079016, 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56.283667, "fair_value": 71.542372, "relative_strength": -16.167822, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.855669, "energy": 24.114093, "activity_lines": [ 54.846, 57.918364, 56.611381, 55.807312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.889999, "volume": 31532, "typical_volume": 54538.05, "trend": 56.013, "fair_value": 71.561538, "relative_strength": -4.754533, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.90104, "energy": 19.873469, "activity_lines": [ 54.377333, 57.328363, 56.797238, 55.781914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.799999, "volume": 17969, "typical_volume": 52906.65, "trend": 55.803667, "fair_value": 71.586538, "relative_strength": -5.037653, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.750824, "energy": 17.430017, "activity_lines": [ 54.845332, 56.859272, 57.043, 55.832688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.0, "volume": 9947, "typical_volume": 50091.2, "trend": 55.475, "fair_value": 71.621154, "relative_strength": -4.8069, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.016613, "energy": 11.14046, "activity_lines": [ 55.659333, 56.524909, 57.263666, 55.909871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }