{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0118c291-9676-454b-bb81-faaa1050886d", "symbol": "EP", "name": "Eastern Power Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.165, "architecture_energy": 79.098, "architecture_maturity": 14.106, "architecture_confidence": 52.077, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.07, "rotation_up": 79.54, "upward_expansion": 71.99, "deceleration": 18.0, "rotation_down": 16.03, "downward_expansion": 27.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.248, 1.194182, 1.136, 1.130989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.25, "trend_reference": 1.135, "distance_from_trend": 0.101322, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.829038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.316581, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.136258, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077586, "excess_performance": -0.114739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101322, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012185, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.316581, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16503, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091363, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200697, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.110471, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 750600, "relative_activity": 1.279054, "balance": 1.110471, "dry_up": 1.037804, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041846, "annualized_volatility": 0.272717, "from_high_reference": -0.113475, "from_low_reference": 0.388889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.135, "fair_value_reference": 1.829038, "structural_low": 0.9, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-09-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-09-17", "end": "2021-11-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087302, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-11-19", "end": "2021-11-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009009, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2021-12-03", "end": "2022-01-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-01-14", "end": "2022-01-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-02-04", "end": "2022-03-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108527, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-03-11", "end": "2022-03-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025862, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-04-01", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.490507, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.432692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015748, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.92, "volume": 581800, "typical_volume": 847675.0, "trend": 3.288667, "fair_value": 4.62766, "relative_strength": -17.965448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.440855, "energy": 64.399122, "activity_lines": [ 2.918667, 2.948, 3.008952, 3.100516 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 2.98, "volume": 3153600, "typical_volume": 953250.0, "trend": 3.246667, "fair_value": 4.624393, "relative_strength": -17.936066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.118523, "energy": 55.946594, "activity_lines": [ 2.934667, 2.948364, 3.000381, 3.080602 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 3.0, "volume": 3257100, "typical_volume": 1053470.0, "trend": 3.206, "fair_value": 4.621842, "relative_strength": 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1.074048, 1.099785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.1, "volume": 150500, "typical_volume": 819430.0, "trend": 1.127667, "fair_value": 1.88391, "relative_strength": -22.775674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.33527, "energy": 17.419348, "activity_lines": [ 1.077333, 1.064909, 1.073429, 1.097763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.18, "volume": 621100, "typical_volume": 685820.0, "trend": 1.127333, "fair_value": 1.872372, "relative_strength": -16.821944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.862743, "energy": 21.475327, "activity_lines": [ 1.112667, 1.087636, 1.080714, 1.10114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.18, "volume": 599300, "typical_volume": 618310.0, "trend": 1.127333, "fair_value": 1.860833, "relative_strength": -17.057755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.34765, "energy": 41.341172, "activity_lines": [ 1.140667, 1.108, 1.088524, 1.104538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.27, "volume": 802200, "typical_volume": 622980.0, "trend": 1.13, "fair_value": 1.849872, "relative_strength": -10.398268, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.793337, "energy": 74.735397, "activity_lines": [ 1.191333, 1.142, 1.105095, 1.113742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.28, "volume": 284000, "typical_volume": 578650.0, "trend": 1.132667, "fair_value": 1.839615, "relative_strength": -8.100329, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.590246, "energy": 80.193669, "activity_lines": [ 1.232, 1.172909, 1.122238, 1.123419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.25, "volume": 750600, "typical_volume": 586840.0, "trend": 1.135, "fair_value": 1.829038, "relative_strength": -9.136258, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.164554, "energy": 79.097708, "activity_lines": [ 1.248, 1.194182, 1.136, 1.130989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }