{ "ticker": { "uuid": "012179c3-bc56-4e97-8824-6883f83780a6", "symbol": "MOSC34", "name": "The Mosaic Company", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.022, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.392, "architecture_energy": 22.538, "architecture_maturity": 76.831, "architecture_confidence": 73.843, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.12, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 18.29, "deceleration": 46.17, "rotation_down": 34.89, "downward_expansion": 59.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.033334, 18.957818, 19.087379, 19.782987 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.530001, "trend_reference": 20.942851, "distance_from_trend": -0.067462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.199572, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.224987, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.015315, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.206297, "excess_performance": -0.149249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048295, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.224987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075323, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190153, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234457, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206297, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.050375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77946, "relative_activity": 2.271515, "balance": 2.050375, "dry_up": 1.836072, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070075, "annualized_volatility": 0.438476, "from_high_reference": -0.392705, "from_low_reference": 0.148397 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.942851, "fair_value_reference": 25.199572, "structural_low": 17.006319, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.009494, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.021629, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.127364, "worst_return": -0.14524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.028772, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.058509, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.096882, "worst_return": -0.262461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079816, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035971, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.09685, "worst_return": -0.284302, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 35141.45, "trend": 21.188234, "fair_value": 25.361656, "relative_strength": -24.334906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.828151, "energy": 40.225226, "activity_lines": [ 18.76, 18.933273, 19.196986, 20.042064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.700001, "volume": 105147, "typical_volume": 37365.7, "trend": 21.057465, "fair_value": 25.280183, "relative_strength": -25.815309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.661363, "energy": 36.259777, "activity_lines": [ 18.735334, 18.867818, 19.086003, 19.881533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.530001, "volume": 77946, "typical_volume": 34314.55, "trend": 20.942851, "fair_value": 25.199572, "relative_strength": -19.015315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.391825, "energy": 22.537903, "activity_lines": [ 19.033334, 18.957818, 19.087379, 19.782987 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }