{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01232c23-5a39-47fd-9b0f-4b95b8c2aeb3", "symbol": "ECMD", "name": "INV EUR CORP SHRT DUR MF ESG UC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.416, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.636, "architecture_energy": 42.23, "architecture_maturity": 4.032, "architecture_confidence": 88.147, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.75, "rotation_up": 17.67, "upward_expansion": 12.82, "deceleration": 35.14, "rotation_down": 57.86, "downward_expansion": 81.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.984867, 4.987882, 4.99335, 4.994306 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.997, "trend_reference": 4.999029, "distance_from_trend": -0.000406, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.8649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027154, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.474431, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006107, "excess_performance": -0.176999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000406, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000312, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027154, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009144, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006107, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.676991, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 770, "relative_activity": 0.015417, "balance": 2.676991, "dry_up": 0.054895, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004218, "annualized_volatility": 0.024514, "from_high_reference": -0.009238, "from_low_reference": 0.01072 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.999029, "fair_value_reference": 4.8649, "structural_low": 4.944, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.031672, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01176, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.017179, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006342, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001685, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00458, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001585, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00925, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003313, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ 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"relative_strength": -16.257367, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.095658, "energy": 9.587373, "activity_lines": [ 4.9975, 5.000691, 4.996987, 4.999333 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 5.001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52529.9, "trend": 5.000334, "fair_value": 4.848016, "relative_strength": -12.955314, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.577636, "energy": 10.435535, "activity_lines": [ 4.9967, 5.000355, 4.997089, 4.999365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 51576.8, "trend": 5.000323, "fair_value": 4.851141, "relative_strength": -15.042688, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.534311, "energy": 12.423832, "activity_lines": [ 4.997033, 5.000527, 4.997414, 4.999472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.9925, "volume": 1022, "typical_volume": 51437.35, "trend": 5.000771, "fair_value": 4.854028, "relative_strength": -14.439533, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.050872, "energy": 19.771582, "activity_lines": [ 4.9954, 4.998973, 4.99699, 4.998967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.9795, "volume": 2459, "typical_volume": 51435.75, "trend": 5.000488, "fair_value": 4.856777, "relative_strength": -13.039537, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.639757, "energy": 35.937631, "activity_lines": [ 4.9906, 4.995036, 4.995538, 4.997595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.9715, "volume": 354, "typical_volume": 50573.55, "trend": 4.999839, "fair_value": 4.859398, "relative_strength": -12.638912, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.131387, "energy": 53.254717, "activity_lines": [ 4.983867, 4.990055, 4.993629, 4.995725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.9805, "volume": 7384, "typical_volume": 50445.25, "trend": 4.999655, "fair_value": 4.862074, "relative_strength": -12.654616, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.468429, "energy": 54.650564, "activity_lines": [ 4.980933, 4.987173, 4.992721, 4.994477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.997, "volume": 770, "typical_volume": 49945.45, "trend": 4.999029, "fair_value": 4.8649, "relative_strength": -14.474431, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.635861, "energy": 42.229897, "activity_lines": [ 4.984867, 4.987882, 4.99335, 4.994306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }