{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0129c523-af05-4b71-82e4-00bb12d098bc", "symbol": "BTG", "name": "BTG Consulting plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.855, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.258, "architecture_energy": 73.198, "architecture_maturity": 10.544, "architecture_confidence": 83.805, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.8, "rotation_up": 9.05, "upward_expansion": 16.68, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 75.54, "downward_expansion": 92.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.066667, 110.581818, 114.68788, 115.887816 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 107.5, "trend_reference": 117.077354, "distance_from_trend": -0.081804, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 109.003299, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013791, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.807012, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088868, "excess_performance": -0.140103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081804, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00304, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013791, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129532, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088868, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.73896, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1176662, "relative_activity": 1.16009, "balance": 0.73896, "dry_up": 1.361396, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061252, "annualized_volatility": 0.1716, "from_high_reference": -0.173077, "from_low_reference": 0.038647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.077354, "fair_value_reference": 109.003299, "structural_low": 103.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.006579, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014229, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.186865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051429, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.053967, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.174242, "worst_return": -0.128405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.049733, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.093151, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.090797, "worst_return": -0.12491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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18.712467, "energy": 11.831823, "activity_lines": [ 119.4, 120.463636, 119.824199, 119.28219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 108.5, "volume": 3121882, "typical_volume": 1196989.2, "trend": 118.192071, "fair_value": 109.595561, "relative_strength": -12.692992, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.884236, "energy": 32.42503, "activity_lines": [ 115.133333, 118.281818, 118.805649, 118.653699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 109.0, "volume": 1388078, "typical_volume": 1200849.5, "trend": 118.025885, "fair_value": 109.468319, "relative_strength": -12.638861, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.808705, "energy": 55.030067, "activity_lines": [ 112.266667, 116.372727, 117.879885, 118.060662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.0, "volume": 1007594, "typical_volume": 1131555.0, "trend": 117.743035, "fair_value": 109.302637, "relative_strength": -15.635657, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.994364, "energy": 77.126807, "activity_lines": [ 109.5, 114.118182, 116.711192, 117.284799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.0, "volume": 1951043, "typical_volume": 1105785.25, "trend": 117.410191, "fair_value": 109.143359, "relative_strength": -16.165749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.338391, "energy": 78.638157, "activity_lines": [ 107.666667, 112.072727, 115.599572, 116.527183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.5, "volume": 1176662, "typical_volume": 1014285.35, "trend": 117.077354, "fair_value": 109.003299, "relative_strength": -14.807012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.258262, "energy": 73.19802, "activity_lines": [ 107.066667, 110.581818, 114.68788, 115.887816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }