{ "ticker": { "uuid": "012adf12-a90c-450d-b41e-1869520a0215", "symbol": "600235", "name": "Minfeng Special Paper Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.722, "architecture_energy": 45.531, "architecture_maturity": 72.497, "architecture_confidence": 68.27, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.4, "rotation_up": 25.64, "upward_expansion": 18.69, "deceleration": 66.72, "rotation_down": 48.46, "downward_expansion": 71.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.268, 5.260909, 5.635833, 5.942055 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.45, "trend_reference": 6.30982, "distance_from_trend": -0.136267, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.815031, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.931306, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.226359, "excess_performance": -0.183155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072702, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062774, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273995, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120667, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.226359, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.225059, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24405400, "relative_activity": 0.939398, "balance": 0.225059, "dry_up": 1.068128, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083275, "annualized_volatility": 0.305455, "from_high_reference": -0.289739, "from_low_reference": 0.149789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.30982, "fair_value_reference": 5.815031, "structural_low": 4.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.030878, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.03019, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.208889, "worst_return": -0.124514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.095691, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": 0.05907, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.173038, "worst_return": -0.242535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.140151, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.18974, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.38969, "worst_return": -0.074633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.01, "volume": 36463568, "typical_volume": 26882418.5, "trend": 6.405494, "fair_value": 5.815789, "relative_strength": -20.973802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.428746, "energy": 64.22745, "activity_lines": [ 5.128, 5.284545, 5.767931, 6.071721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.3, "volume": 23561700, "typical_volume": 26506821.2, "trend": 6.354325, "fair_value": 5.815212, "relative_strength": -16.371934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.709531, "energy": 57.329676, "activity_lines": [ 5.181333, 5.248182, 5.690324, 6.000399 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.45, "volume": 24405400, "typical_volume": 25979830.6, "trend": 6.30982, "fair_value": 5.815031, "relative_strength": -15.931306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.721805, "energy": 45.531404, "activity_lines": [ 5.268, 5.260909, 5.635833, 5.942055 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }