{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0130a895-4ebc-4104-9a29-8ad26a993bae", "symbol": "301093", "name": "Jiangsu Hualan New Pharmaceutical Material Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.063, "architecture_energy": 25.504, "architecture_maturity": 67.071, "architecture_confidence": 50.899, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.61, "rotation_up": 16.93, "upward_expansion": 17.76, "deceleration": 69.31, "rotation_down": 59.16, "downward_expansion": 40.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.361629, 77.36795, 80.405701, 77.26741 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 84.230003, "trend_reference": 71.753269, "distance_from_trend": 0.173884, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.62723, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.942304, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 52.798876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.413592, "excess_performance": 0.406192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.173884, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.273486, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.942304, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273568, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.527989, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.413592, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.469363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39426237, "relative_activity": 1.398133, "balance": 0.469363, "dry_up": 1.132374, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189551, "annualized_volatility": 0.87664, "from_high_reference": -0.235984, "from_low_reference": 3.151856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.753269, "fair_value_reference": 28.62723, "structural_low": 50.119999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.064901, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.675003, "worst_return": -0.045061, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.116556, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.092376, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.197421, "worst_return": 0.014357, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.434879, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.342988, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.434879, "worst_return": 0.434879, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.25808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018998, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005915, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025452, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 27.692247, "relative_strength": 35.088687, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.459009, "energy": 16.874682, "activity_lines": [ 82.845209, 88.214813, 83.14367, 77.612935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.799999, "volume": 33859046, "typical_volume": 27614121.1, "trend": 69.558646, "fair_value": 27.95847, "relative_strength": 18.425219, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.125162, "energy": 21.102579, "activity_lines": [ 73.795114, 82.861237, 81.537437, 77.09668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.23, "volume": 27476407, "typical_volume": 27588467.85, "trend": 70.25504, "fair_value": 28.207635, "relative_strength": 13.606402, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.824969, "energy": 39.728476, "activity_lines": [ 66.490857, 77.367605, 79.715328, 76.365799 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.230003, "volume": 39426237, "typical_volume": 28199212.35, "trend": 71.753269, "fair_value": 28.62723, "relative_strength": 52.798876, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.063207, "energy": 25.504106, "activity_lines": [ 70.361629, 77.36795, 80.405701, 77.26741 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }