{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0139717a-c907-476a-836f-185952a0644a", "symbol": "AREC", "name": "American Resources Corp Class A", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.35, "architecture_energy": 12.659, "architecture_maturity": 78.556, "architecture_confidence": 69.707, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.65, "rotation_up": 27.04, "upward_expansion": 15.45, "deceleration": 43.46, "rotation_down": 32.4, "downward_expansion": 65.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.068, 2.003273, 2.061262, 2.204914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.74, "trend_reference": 2.4865, "distance_from_trend": 0.101951, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.602329, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.71001, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.592403, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.108943, "excess_performance": -0.296397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101951, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107929, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.71001, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.293429, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105924, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101041, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108943, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551918, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16431602, "relative_activity": 1.157956, "balance": 0.551918, "dry_up": 0.961925, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153327, "annualized_volatility": 0.778499, "from_high_reference": -0.614627, "from_low_reference": 1.321247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.4865, "fair_value_reference": 1.602329, "structural_low": 1.475, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.002083, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.053364, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.758212, "worst_return": -0.364174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.112821, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.070732, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 1.315626, "worst_return": -0.55313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.157233, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.071176, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 3.229167, "worst_return": -0.569444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.104547, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.14032, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 5.479167, "worst_return": -0.569375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.239394, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.422857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089671, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.255062, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002083, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.486047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.832994, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.981481, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.571942, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245033, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.118367, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.37, "volume": 1792705, "typical_volume": 1141414.8, "trend": 1.601167, "fair_value": 2.143462, "relative_strength": -34.846024, "stage": 1, 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"typical_volume": 14477451.05, "trend": 2.569833, "fair_value": 1.596688, "relative_strength": -46.280953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.791068, "energy": 68.401336, "activity_lines": [ 1.816, 1.950909, 2.088071, 2.291742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.74, "volume": 9809949, "typical_volume": 14191459.7, "trend": 2.5385, "fair_value": 1.595983, "relative_strength": -39.608584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.070117, "energy": 67.716982, "activity_lines": [ 1.758667, 1.896909, 2.039262, 2.238204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.79, "volume": 8185981, "typical_volume": 14056069.3, "trend": 2.5075, "fair_value": 1.595983, "relative_strength": -38.343248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.259097, "energy": 62.712604, "activity_lines": [ 1.745333, 1.860364, 2.001881, 2.189914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.74, "volume": 16431602, "typical_volume": 14190175.0, "trend": 2.4865, "fair_value": 1.602329, "relative_strength": -10.592403, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.350221, "energy": 12.658893, "activity_lines": [ 2.068, 2.003273, 2.061262, 2.204914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }