{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "013a1106-42ef-4215-9a82-f9b654a78490",
    "symbol": "BFG",
    "name": "Burger Fuel Group Limited",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_to_3_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 \u2192 3 watch",
    "confidence": 62.3,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 10.156,
    "architecture_energy": 36.763,
    "architecture_maturity": 9.2,
    "architecture_confidence": 53.236,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.43,
        "rotation_up": 58.5,
        "upward_expansion": 54.4,
        "deceleration": 27.69,
        "rotation_down": 20.28,
        "downward_expansion": 17.4
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.338667,
        0.336182,
        0.330952,
        0.330946
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 0.32,
    "trend_reference": 0.333333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.04,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.314977,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015946,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -6.560759,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.044776,
    "excess_performance": -0.07305,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002004,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015946,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011796,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.065608,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.028206,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.044776,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.843773,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8699,
      "relative_activity": 0.93657,
      "balance": 0.843773,
      "dry_up": 1.189715,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.03726,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.27125,
      "from_high_reference": -0.111111,
      "from_low_reference": 0.066667
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.333333,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.314977,
      "structural_low": 0.3,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.015873,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.07168,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.0,
        "worst_return": -0.086957,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.090218,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.137835,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.05,
        "worst_return": -0.130435,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.098732,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.149966,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.072464,
        "worst_return": -0.125001,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.138224,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.108104,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.101449,
        "worst_return": -0.174999,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.03125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.138889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.076923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.046875,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.072464,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.047619,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.014706,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.055556,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.073529,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.131148,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.059701,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.129032,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.085714,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 0.37662,
        "volume": 575,
        "typical_volume": 3076.55,
        "trend": 0.37569,
        "fair_value": 0.474039,
        "relative_strength": -3.90866,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.885597,
        "energy": 18.787453,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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        "typical_volume": 3157.9,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
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        "energy": 31.555581,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
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        "date": "2023-09-29",
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      },
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        "date": "2023-10-20",
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      },
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        "date": "2023-10-27",
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      },
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          0.33572
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 0.32,
        "volume": 2433,
        "typical_volume": 14353.0,
        "trend": 0.334833,
        "fair_value": 0.318678,
        "relative_strength": -3.740177,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -45.373206,
        "energy": 21.803666,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 0.315,
        "volume": 12200,
        "typical_volume": 14887.65,
        "trend": 0.334333,
        "fair_value": 0.318149,
        "relative_strength": -3.482293,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.080331,
        "energy": 50.792895,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.325,
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          0.333473
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 15068,
        "typical_volume": 15438.6,
        "trend": 0.333333,
        "fair_value": 0.317632,
        "relative_strength": -4.863763,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.691203,
        "energy": 69.9832,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 5231,
        "typical_volume": 15422.85,
        "trend": 0.332667,
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        "relative_strength": -6.281686,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 77.349458,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.314,
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          0.327143,
          0.330398
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 0.325,
        "volume": 5011,
        "typical_volume": 12497.4,
        "trend": 0.3325,
        "fair_value": 0.316695,
        "relative_strength": -1.13182,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.038538,
        "energy": 66.331592,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 106,
        "typical_volume": 11564.3,
        "trend": 0.332333,
        "fair_value": 0.316454,
        "relative_strength": -2.721846,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 45.940848,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 6011,
        "typical_volume": 10726.8,
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        "energy": 18.882659,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 0.33,
        "volume": 43,
        "typical_volume": 10169.75,
        "trend": 0.332833,
        "fair_value": 0.31599,
        "relative_strength": -1.937523,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.649747,
        "energy": 21.743926,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.327,
          0.323273,
          0.32569,
          0.329097
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 0.325,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 10047.9,
        "trend": 0.332333,
        "fair_value": 0.315659,
        "relative_strength": -4.092185,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.590496,
        "energy": 20.811843,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.327333,
          0.323545,
          0.325286,
          0.328591
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 0.33,
        "volume": 8180,
        "typical_volume": 8851.65,
        "trend": 0.331667,
        "fair_value": 0.31545,
        "relative_strength": -3.614324,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -15.482976,
        "energy": 17.339527,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.328333,
          0.324909,
          0.325452,
          0.328441
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.35,
        "volume": 11146,
        "typical_volume": 9294.1,
        "trend": 0.3325,
        "fair_value": 0.315324,
        "relative_strength": 3.004355,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 42.90766,
        "energy": 44.354879,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.335667,
          0.33,
          0.327619,
          0.329624
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.35,
        "volume": 15924,
        "typical_volume": 9210.9,
        "trend": 0.333167,
        "fair_value": 0.315377,
        "relative_strength": 2.4755,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 42.387475,
        "energy": 58.265594,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.341333,
          0.334545,
          0.329738,
          0.330753
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.35,
        "volume": 8432,
        "typical_volume": 9363.55,
        "trend": 0.333833,
        "fair_value": 0.315385,
        "relative_strength": 3.051642,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 39.136013,
        "energy": 66.434847,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.345667,
          0.338455,
          0.33181,
          0.331839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.32,
        "volume": 8699,
        "typical_volume": 9288.15,
        "trend": 0.333333,
        "fair_value": 0.314977,
        "relative_strength": -6.560759,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 10.156179,
        "energy": 36.762991,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.338667,
          0.336182,
          0.330952,
          0.330946
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}