{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01414b37-b260-40da-a2db-0c4bd2777f4f", "symbol": "MOTI", "name": "VANECK MORNINGSTAR INTERNATIONAL MOAT ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.048, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 43.886, "architecture_energy": 44.242, "architecture_maturity": 65.434, "architecture_confidence": 79.24, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.04, "rotation_up": 66.28, "upward_expansion": 36.36, "deceleration": 33.68, "rotation_down": 14.14, "downward_expansion": 22.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.90114, 35.038033, 34.778285, 34.947995 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.5099, "trend_reference": 35.540187, "distance_from_trend": 0.055422, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.953597, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.018418, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015488, "excess_performance": -0.141113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055422, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018276, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05701, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053018, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015488, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.891219, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16696, "relative_activity": 0.083356, "balance": 1.891219, "dry_up": 0.104726, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031879, "annualized_volatility": 0.213377, "from_high_reference": -0.047247, "from_low_reference": 0.148497 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.540187, "fair_value_reference": 31.953597, "structural_low": 32.66, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.001995, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.009517, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.131931, "worst_return": -0.094023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008945, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001695, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.085814, "worst_return": -0.105799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046453, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.019467, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.150112, "worst_return": -0.142931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 34.108693, 34.055893, 34.357124, 34.877295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.2096, "volume": 29702, "typical_volume": 205339.2, "trend": 35.593157, "fair_value": 31.853062, "relative_strength": -11.651638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.874216, "energy": 19.423613, "activity_lines": [ 34.2142, 34.071164, 34.326056, 34.782635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.2122, "volume": 21614, "typical_volume": 203793.4, "trend": 35.565857, "fair_value": 31.897492, "relative_strength": -7.292446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.100117, "energy": 14.172471, "activity_lines": [ 34.956627, 34.448551, 34.492809, 34.822573 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.5099, "volume": 16696, "typical_volume": 200296.7, "trend": 35.540187, "fair_value": 31.953597, "relative_strength": -7.018418, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.885894, "energy": 44.241922, "activity_lines": [ 35.90114, 35.038033, 34.778285, 34.947995 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }