{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0141ff2c-06d7-4c06-b618-5e49d2346d64", "symbol": "F17", "name": "GuocoLand Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.358, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.683, "architecture_energy": 25.308, "architecture_maturity": 57.28, "architecture_confidence": 74.719, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.07, "rotation_up": 27.56, "upward_expansion": 21.54, "deceleration": 45.76, "rotation_down": 22.47, "downward_expansion": 55.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.251333, 2.230545, 2.263762, 2.319957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.26, "trend_reference": 2.393333, "distance_from_trend": -0.05571, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.675915, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348517, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.226724, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150376, "excess_performance": -0.305211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020901, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348517, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165842, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150376, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.565081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 517800, "relative_activity": 0.718847, "balance": 0.565081, "dry_up": 0.718743, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033016, "annualized_volatility": 0.212118, "from_high_reference": -0.223368, "from_low_reference": 0.358387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.393333, "fair_value_reference": 1.675915, "structural_low": 2.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.013889, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.000631, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.130137, "worst_return": -0.045752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041433, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.032023, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.30986, "worst_return": -0.044304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0325, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.051394, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.282759, "worst_return": -0.031646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.867277, "energy": 79.063333, "activity_lines": [ 2.184, 2.223636, 2.312095, 2.364516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.25, "volume": 730600, "typical_volume": 1135125.0, "trend": 2.383, "fair_value": 1.65374, "relative_strength": -10.888722, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.231974, "energy": 69.734241, "activity_lines": [ 2.202667, 2.219818, 2.298476, 2.356344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.22, "volume": 590900, "typical_volume": 1018165.0, "trend": 2.384333, "fair_value": 1.659138, "relative_strength": -12.797321, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.22334, "energy": 51.359445, "activity_lines": [ 2.210667, 2.214364, 2.284714, 2.345828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.22, "volume": 373600, "typical_volume": 887395.0, "trend": 2.386667, "fair_value": 1.664478, "relative_strength": -14.036758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.798515, "energy": 39.494154, "activity_lines": [ 2.217333, 2.212727, 2.273476, 2.335226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.28, "volume": 588600, "typical_volume": 790550.0, "trend": 2.39, "fair_value": 1.670203, "relative_strength": -12.39391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.553492, "energy": 28.213325, "activity_lines": [ 2.242, 2.223273, 2.269286, 2.328344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.26, "volume": 517800, "typical_volume": 720320.0, "trend": 2.393333, "fair_value": 1.675915, "relative_strength": -14.226724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.683176, "energy": 25.307568, "activity_lines": [ 2.251333, 2.230545, 2.263762, 2.319957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }