{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01439eea-2d20-4088-936c-dda0d3870d50", "symbol": "CKT", "name": "Checkit plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.418, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.753, "architecture_energy": 43.839, "architecture_maturity": 7.025, "architecture_confidence": 60.811, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.81, "rotation_up": 15.4, "upward_expansion": 23.96, "deceleration": 51.19, "rotation_down": 64.25, "downward_expansion": 53.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.202333, 0.207727, 0.220905, 0.215489 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.215, "trend_reference": 0.207167, "distance_from_trend": 0.037812, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.200372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.220765, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.162162, "excess_performance": 0.110927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037812, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073005, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199832, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032208, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3486, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.162162, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.889023, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1022768, "relative_activity": 1.196558, "balance": 0.889023, "dry_up": 0.650097, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097631, "annualized_volatility": 0.608309, "from_high_reference": -0.203704, "from_low_reference": 0.740891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.207167, "fair_value_reference": 0.200372, "structural_low": 0.13995, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.063208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.559322, "worst_return": -0.114035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.12519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.559322, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.263158, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.324407, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121951, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.358491, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175676, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.220339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162162, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.21, "volume": 444985, "typical_volume": 501948.25, "trend": 0.2544, "fair_value": 0.395478, "relative_strength": -4.264313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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0.226821, 0.216575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.215, "volume": 299720, "typical_volume": 899651.4, "trend": 0.207833, "fair_value": 0.200692, "relative_strength": 8.182557, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.69525, "energy": 22.765424, "activity_lines": [ 0.216, 0.227182, 0.227036, 0.21707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.21, "volume": 215104, "typical_volume": 835167.05, "trend": 0.207833, "fair_value": 0.200788, "relative_strength": 4.366168, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.197778, "energy": 17.440097, "activity_lines": [ 0.213333, 0.222364, 0.226607, 0.21721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.195, "volume": 523296, "typical_volume": 819961.4, "trend": 0.207333, "fair_value": 0.200692, "relative_strength": -4.480433, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.410945, "energy": 37.086029, "activity_lines": [ 0.207, 0.215636, 0.224583, 0.216382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.185, "volume": 461534, "typical_volume": 824807.1, "trend": 0.2065, "fair_value": 0.200532, "relative_strength": -10.572119, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.051728, "energy": 58.756519, "activity_lines": [ 0.198667, 0.208273, 0.221405, 0.214941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.215, "volume": 1022768, "typical_volume": 854758.05, "trend": 0.207167, "fair_value": 0.200372, "relative_strength": 3.220765, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.752602, "energy": 43.838986, "activity_lines": [ 0.202333, 0.207727, 0.220905, 0.215489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }