{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01448191-41da-48e4-8ab0-b38050c7e2f2", "symbol": "SAX", "name": "Str\u00f6er SE & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.214, "architecture_energy": 80.464, "architecture_maturity": 18.035, "architecture_confidence": 76.736, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.0, "rotation_up": 79.68, "upward_expansion": 92.69, "deceleration": 41.94, "rotation_down": 9.37, "downward_expansion": 17.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.325333, 36.830545, 36.014088, 35.051195 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.860001, "trend_reference": 34.037434, "distance_from_trend": 0.200443, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.597687, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062794, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.155427, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.308156, "excess_performance": 0.243516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.200443, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062794, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088149, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081554, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103513, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.308156, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.407547, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 602715, "relative_activity": 0.999037, "balance": 1.407547, "dry_up": 0.834553, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0598, "annualized_volatility": 0.344635, "from_high_reference": -0.09541, "from_low_reference": 0.494063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.037434, "fair_value_reference": 43.597687, "structural_low": 27.348242, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.010486, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041201, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.117696, "worst_return": -0.071151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032232, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.090375, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.247903, "worst_return": -0.091143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.212938, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.194126, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.263207, "worst_return": -0.288698, "sufficient": true }, { 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33.722386, "fair_value": 43.582865, "relative_strength": -3.177442, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.207245, "energy": 25.246261, "activity_lines": [ 35.139999, 35.011215, 34.857628, 34.21813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.64, "volume": 858351, "typical_volume": 611048.5, "trend": 33.865107, "fair_value": 43.588798, "relative_strength": 7.346825, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.08317, "energy": 62.496962, "activity_lines": [ 36.725333, 35.847171, 35.397324, 34.599912 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.860001, "volume": 602715, "typical_volume": 603295.8, "trend": 34.037434, "fair_value": 43.597687, "relative_strength": 8.155427, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.213542, "energy": 80.464293, "activity_lines": [ 38.325333, 36.830545, 36.014088, 35.051195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }