{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01498221-1e1f-4b07-bba6-537dbed7563d", "symbol": "002278", "name": "Shanghai SK Petroleum & Chemical Equipment Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.878, "architecture_energy": 63.098, "architecture_maturity": 85.872, "architecture_confidence": 95.627, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 29.1, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.19, "rotation_down": 53.45, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.665333, 7.751217, 8.503027, 9.404976 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.88, "trend_reference": 10.650161, "distance_from_trend": -0.260105, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.463739, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055771, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.935828, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.393846, "excess_performance": -0.401246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.260105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111815, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055771, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.423888, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094307, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.393846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45995040, "relative_activity": 0.848813, "balance": 0.58318, "dry_up": 1.081148, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088956, "annualized_volatility": 0.382984, "from_high_reference": -0.522424, "from_low_reference": 0.145349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.650161, "fair_value_reference": 7.463739, "structural_low": 6.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.01082, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.023168, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.109223, "worst_return": -0.140752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082863, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.088825, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.134174, "worst_return": -0.043028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000778, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.130541, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.092279, "worst_return": -0.04291, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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81.473261, "activity_lines": [ 7.64, 8.053604, 9.100191, 10.038276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.46, "volume": 78683718, "typical_volume": 66332881.0, "trend": 10.970827, "fair_value": 7.433441, "relative_strength": -32.041712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.306937, "energy": 67.694676, "activity_lines": [ 7.538, 7.865388, 8.851406, 9.803147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.73, "volume": 54408229, "typical_volume": 60794440.4, "trend": 10.810827, "fair_value": 7.448235, "relative_strength": -28.13492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.329546, "energy": 66.017329, "activity_lines": [ 7.578667, 7.777653, 8.658717, 9.594062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.88, "volume": 45995040, "typical_volume": 54187484.65, "trend": 10.650161, "fair_value": 7.463739, "relative_strength": -29.935828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.877945, "energy": 63.097704, "activity_lines": [ 7.665333, 7.751217, 8.503027, 9.404976 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }