{ "ticker": { "uuid": "014e624c-9f8c-475f-aec4-d5a883081440", "symbol": "9407", "name": "Albilad Capital - MSCI US Tech ETF", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.143, "architecture_energy": 28.112, "architecture_maturity": 47.644, "architecture_confidence": 92.441, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.28, "rotation_up": 39.24, "upward_expansion": 59.19, "deceleration": 84.17, "rotation_down": 27.46, "downward_expansion": 20.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.846, 24.877636, 24.680857, 24.110172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.940001, "trend_reference": 23.494333, "distance_from_trend": 0.104096, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.424231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.407929, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.135976, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.114261, "excess_performance": 0.162537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104096, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030227, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.407929, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036158, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.14136, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058446, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114261, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.012826, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62740, "relative_activity": 1.06873, "balance": 1.012826, "dry_up": 0.954413, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050649, "annualized_volatility": 0.329901, "from_high_reference": -0.041389, "from_low_reference": 0.304829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.494333, "fair_value_reference": 18.424231, "structural_low": 19.879999, "invalidation": 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"median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013572, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204134, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", 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"typical_volume": 58705.2, "trend": 23.494333, "fair_value": 18.424231, "relative_strength": 14.135976, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.143216, "energy": 28.111808, "activity_lines": [ 24.846, 24.877636, 24.680857, 24.110172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }