{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01550161-b6a4-4251-a84d-9e66a80439df", "symbol": "PXS", "name": "Provexis plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.725, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.301, "architecture_energy": 4.286, "architecture_maturity": 14.396, "architecture_confidence": 49.894, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.59, "rotation_up": 31.96, "upward_expansion": 33.58, "deceleration": 60.85, "rotation_down": 30.53, "downward_expansion": 19.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011593, 0.011727, 0.011233, 0.011202 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.011, "trend_reference": 0.011263, "distance_from_trend": -0.023322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.007216, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.524493, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.560494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07173, "excess_performance": -0.122965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023322, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158631, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.524493, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039549, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.095605, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075095, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.756512, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7799105, "relative_activity": 1.272665, "balance": 0.756512, "dry_up": 1.026962, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.242168, "annualized_volatility": 0.585326, "from_high_reference": -0.290323, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.011263, "fair_value_reference": 0.007216, "structural_low": 0.008, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.034925, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.346154, "median_excess_return": -0.035012, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.083135, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.082173, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.306122, "worst_return": -0.277286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058642, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.09648, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.0848, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.057209, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.100153, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.027692, "worst_return": -0.258065, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187396, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"volume": 6920248, "typical_volume": 7771335.3, "trend": 0.010973, "fair_value": 0.007113, "relative_strength": 28.932641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.314753, "energy": 48.057285, "activity_lines": [ 0.012363, 0.011654, 0.011055, 0.011133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01195, "volume": 4385069, "typical_volume": 7510194.9, "trend": 0.011134, "fair_value": 0.007151, "relative_strength": 21.93063, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.632218, "energy": 42.011011, "activity_lines": [ 0.012293, 0.011795, 0.011159, 0.011196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01145, "volume": 6069174, "typical_volume": 6467571.6, "trend": 0.011221, "fair_value": 0.007186, "relative_strength": 14.862944, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.627763, "energy": 15.639641, "activity_lines": [ 0.011983, 0.011811, 0.011218, 0.011216 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.011, "volume": 7799105, "typical_volume": 6128168.35, "trend": 0.011263, "fair_value": 0.007216, "relative_strength": 9.560494, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.301407, "energy": 4.286305, "activity_lines": [ 0.011593, 0.011727, 0.011233, 0.011202 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }