{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0155c402-fa6f-4fb0-afb0-7b87b9b1b434", "symbol": "DG", "name": "Vinci SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.093, "architecture_energy": 59.33, "architecture_maturity": 6.125, "architecture_confidence": 87.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.9, "rotation_up": 13.66, "upward_expansion": 15.92, "deceleration": 34.75, "rotation_down": 61.85, "downward_expansion": 84.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.933333, 123.158181, 124.623255, 125.390061 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 125.75, "trend_reference": 125.554605, "distance_from_trend": 0.001556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 108.981797, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153862, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.624442, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029714, "excess_performance": -0.203961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021189, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153862, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064247, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156244, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066571, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.953846, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 254, "relative_activity": 13.229167, "balance": 1.953846, "dry_up": 3.307292, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032146, "annualized_volatility": 0.24663, "from_high_reference": -0.094829, "from_low_reference": 0.153662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.554605, "fair_value_reference": 108.981797, "structural_low": 117.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019293, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.007205, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.040446, "worst_return": -0.007101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062924, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.018473, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.130759, "worst_return": -0.044195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121037, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.04578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231166, "worst_return": 0.040349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096031, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006843, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029896, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005726, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": 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16.65623, "activity_lines": [ 126.536666, 126.437194, 127.079536, 126.167604 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 130.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4.45, "trend": 124.523937, "fair_value": 107.928555, "relative_strength": -12.838377, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.041677, "energy": 27.121614, "activity_lines": [ 128.029999, 126.957273, 127.277295, 126.545148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 128.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4.45, "trend": 124.893266, "fair_value": 108.14895, "relative_strength": -15.562985, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.719755, "energy": 26.893775, "activity_lines": [ 128.413333, 127.216364, 127.306487, 126.785539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 118.949997, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 8.45, "trend": 124.991441, "fair_value": 108.307115, "relative_strength": -20.127735, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.031219, "energy": 6.571289, "activity_lines": [ 125.533332, 125.774545, 126.463798, 126.402103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 118.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.5, "trend": 125.051715, "fair_value": 108.449423, "relative_strength": -18.539407, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.554193, "energy": 50.355492, "activity_lines": [ 122.766666, 124.365454, 125.634526, 125.967171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 118.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.5, "trend": 125.116797, "fair_value": 108.592547, "relative_strength": -19.198644, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.226309, "energy": 66.066738, "activity_lines": [ 120.489998, 123.157272, 124.892235, 125.525125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 122.550003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.5, "trend": 125.276703, "fair_value": 108.768217, "relative_strength": -15.739197, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.567125, "energy": 61.490437, "activity_lines": [ 120.43, 122.870909, 124.597478, 125.359525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.75, "volume": 254, "typical_volume": 19.2, "trend": 125.554605, "fair_value": 108.981797, "relative_strength": -15.624442, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.092913, "energy": 59.329618, "activity_lines": [ 121.933333, 123.158181, 124.623255, 125.390061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }