{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0164e3f8-80f2-4056-a20c-3b11ee28d0e9", "symbol": "4072", "name": "MBC Group Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.582, "architecture_energy": 66.774, "architecture_maturity": 75.898, "architecture_confidence": 82.502, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 14.71, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 50.99, "rotation_down": 73.34, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.942666, 21.677091, 23.062857, 24.211484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.32, "trend_reference": 25.784667, "distance_from_trend": -0.173152, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.55812, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.474335, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.954931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.241821, "excess_performance": -0.209991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173152, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108352, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.474335, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239549, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058344, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 821687, "relative_activity": 0.795778, "balance": 0.418073, "dry_up": 1.090731, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057909, "annualized_volatility": 0.361964, "from_high_reference": -0.438947, "from_low_reference": 0.067067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.784667, "fair_value_reference": 40.55812, "structural_low": 19.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.04984, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.032628, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.182266, "worst_return": -0.201786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.042927, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.110945, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.102236, "worst_return": -0.201103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.189456, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.175408, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.06262, "worst_return": -0.316292, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 41.015154, "relative_strength": -23.389831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.830152, "energy": 82.767934, "activity_lines": [ 22.172667, 22.993819, 24.238858, 25.304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.879999, "volume": 879279, "typical_volume": 1044031.8, "trend": 26.408, "fair_value": 40.86145, "relative_strength": -26.313584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.57589, "energy": 89.102727, "activity_lines": [ 21.572667, 22.499637, 23.828762, 24.924258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.059999, "volume": 722473, "typical_volume": 1002886.15, "trend": 26.02, "fair_value": 40.703864, "relative_strength": -27.27098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.760394, "energy": 91.446788, "activity_lines": [ 20.929333, 21.931636, 23.369714, 24.51471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.32, "volume": 821687, "typical_volume": 1032558.3, "trend": 25.784667, "fair_value": 40.55812, "relative_strength": -23.954931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.581997, "energy": 66.774146, "activity_lines": [ 20.942666, 21.677091, 23.062857, 24.211484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }