{ "ticker": { "uuid": "016605aa-c28f-4cab-9d77-5130083c62ff", "symbol": "DAKT", "name": "Daktronics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.338, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.092, "architecture_energy": 4.995, "architecture_maturity": 23.85, "architecture_confidence": 51.148, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.79, "rotation_up": 21.38, "upward_expansion": 24.45, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 34.13, "downward_expansion": 53.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.188667, 20.02, 19.976, 20.330699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.43, "trend_reference": 21.101167, "distance_from_trend": 0.015584, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.997115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.428941, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.803239, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.156631, "excess_performance": -0.344085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015584, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017014, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.428941, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027877, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156631, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.817162, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2403273, "relative_activity": 1.197039, "balance": 1.817162, "dry_up": 1.111942, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080539, "annualized_volatility": 0.405044, "from_high_reference": -0.241923, "from_low_reference": 0.374599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.101167, "fair_value_reference": 14.997115, "structural_low": 18.84, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021995, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016672, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.26875, "worst_return": -0.078998, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.400977, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.277882, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.703125, "worst_return": 0.09883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.673913, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.426889, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.178125, "worst_return": 0.169701, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217164, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09883, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001861, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", 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3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.548752, "energy": 34.260574, "activity_lines": [ 19.655333, 19.830364, 19.880238, 20.494194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.48, "volume": 2159209, "typical_volume": 2175196.25, "trend": 21.0825, "fair_value": 14.832308, "relative_strength": -11.465566, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.614509, "energy": 31.745553, "activity_lines": [ 19.532667, 19.76, 19.832643, 20.392806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.77, "volume": 1844222, "typical_volume": 2065487.95, "trend": 21.080167, "fair_value": 14.910705, "relative_strength": -10.616117, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.926717, "energy": 27.365175, "activity_lines": [ 19.592, 19.734364, 19.824429, 20.308129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.43, "volume": 2403273, "typical_volume": 2007681.95, "trend": 21.101167, "fair_value": 14.997115, "relative_strength": -7.803239, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.092257, "energy": 4.995276, "activity_lines": [ 20.188667, 20.02, 19.976, 20.330699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }