{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0167a656-7128-4ece-9c58-b5e9b032f6cf", "symbol": "HERO", "name": "GLOBAL X VIDEO GAMES & ESPORTS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.289, "architecture_energy": 16.552, "architecture_maturity": 16.331, "architecture_confidence": 63.177, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.9, "rotation_up": 40.03, "upward_expansion": 32.56, "deceleration": 43.98, "rotation_down": 17.57, "downward_expansion": 43.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.008173, 25.471104, 25.437782, 25.678569 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.3875, "trend_reference": 26.331488, "distance_from_trend": 0.040105, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.621013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112363, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.878757, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.006259, "excess_performance": -0.193713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062447, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112363, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027614, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106105, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006259, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 151618, "relative_activity": 1.12898, "balance": 0.855168, "dry_up": 0.985032, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047499, "annualized_volatility": 0.22722, "from_high_reference": -0.201478, "from_low_reference": 0.173486 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.331488, "fair_value_reference": 24.621013, "structural_low": 23.33859, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010477, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.024929, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.116842, "worst_return": -0.080151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009214, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066286, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152752, "worst_return": -0.176207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072453, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.153521, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219196, "worst_return": -0.156067, "sufficient": false }, { 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135199.35, "trend": 26.893092, "fair_value": 24.473967, "relative_strength": -25.396016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.679277, "energy": 35.783751, "activity_lines": [ 24.885228, 24.925554, 25.371865, 25.917256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.98, "volume": 62810, "typical_volume": 130811.7, "trend": 26.739418, "fair_value": 24.503892, "relative_strength": -22.985304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.684676, "energy": 28.815039, "activity_lines": [ 24.973622, 24.900961, 25.303672, 25.793831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.4445, "volume": 105032, "typical_volume": 130543.55, "trend": 26.559488, "fair_value": 24.52846, "relative_strength": -22.788885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.109896, "energy": 26.150242, "activity_lines": [ 24.853011, 24.801385, 25.196288, 25.645772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.1057, "volume": 209685, "typical_volume": 137532.4, "trend": 26.425361, "fair_value": 24.56858, "relative_strength": -17.38154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.976826, "energy": 13.878155, "activity_lines": [ 25.294273, 25.026242, 25.255034, 25.616495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.3875, "volume": 151618, "typical_volume": 134296.45, "trend": 26.331488, "fair_value": 24.621013, "relative_strength": -16.878757, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.289333, "energy": 16.552498, "activity_lines": [ 26.008173, 25.471104, 25.437782, 25.678569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }