{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01699c01-be4d-4bbb-8247-fccbd0f6aa92", "symbol": "S6EW", "name": "Ossiam STOXX Europe 600 ESG Equal Weight NR UCITS ETF 1C (EUR)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.783, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.632, "architecture_energy": 92.405, "architecture_maturity": 32.95, "architecture_confidence": 69.109, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 77.89, "upward_expansion": 97.22, "deceleration": 42.02, "rotation_down": 14.66, "downward_expansion": 21.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 157.429333, 156.17309, 153.796476, 151.804344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 159.160004, "trend_reference": 149.885333, "distance_from_trend": 0.061878, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 129.285513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231074, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.785765, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.067185, "excess_performance": -0.103707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061878, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035472, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044255, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008643, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067185, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.810526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.002547, "balance": 0.810526, "dry_up": 0.100611, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013136, "annualized_volatility": 0.145191, "from_high_reference": -0.003506, "from_low_reference": 0.194895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.885333, "fair_value_reference": 129.285513, "structural_low": 133.199997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.008908, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008365, "regime_survival": 0.657143, "best_return": 0.054518, "worst_return": -0.098798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007896, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.031544, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.067758, "worst_return": -0.066805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034058, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058259, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.102795, "worst_return": 0.003972, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 154.990664, 153.996362, 151.456286, 150.118151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 155.839996, "volume": 124, "typical_volume": 426.05, "trend": 148.994667, "fair_value": 128.687692, "relative_strength": -4.711348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.625599, "energy": 75.361638, "activity_lines": [ 155.407997, 154.528362, 152.105619, 150.593419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 158.059998, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 419.85, "trend": 149.456, "fair_value": 128.979231, "relative_strength": -3.864199, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.118699, "energy": 80.72957, "activity_lines": [ 156.403997, 155.307634, 152.935142, 151.178279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 159.160004, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 392.6, "trend": 149.885333, "fair_value": 129.285513, "relative_strength": -5.785765, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.632475, "energy": 92.405424, "activity_lines": [ 157.429333, 156.17309, 153.796476, 151.804344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }