{ "ticker": { "uuid": "016b9606-f2a6-4875-8dc1-394952d9d5f1", "symbol": "300218", "name": "Anhui Anli Material Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.84, "architecture_energy": 54.27, "architecture_maturity": 51.942, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.12, "rotation_up": 20.31, "upward_expansion": 8.93, "deceleration": 47.55, "rotation_down": 56.52, "downward_expansion": 79.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.996, 12.226182, 12.871172, 13.59247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.35, "trend_reference": 14.598276, "distance_from_trend": -0.15401, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.714539, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.160694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.565401, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.265755, "excess_performance": -0.273155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15401, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086024, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.160694, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201352, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0039, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.291434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14624105, "relative_activity": 0.952373, "balance": 0.291434, "dry_up": 0.791204, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08831, "annualized_volatility": 0.392423, "from_high_reference": -0.538318, "from_low_reference": 0.111611 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.598276, "fair_value_reference": 14.714539, "structural_low": 11.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.00239, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.015005, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.091609, "worst_return": -0.121782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002076, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007946, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.25523, "worst_return": -0.152325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018886, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.060168, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.423148, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 14.646712, "relative_strength": -30.324394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.73421, "energy": 51.469443, "activity_lines": [ 12.734667, 12.981923, 13.697282, 14.378649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.09, "volume": 12900285, "typical_volume": 17964051.5, "trend": 15.001276, "fair_value": 14.665297, "relative_strength": -27.964584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.395854, "energy": 55.038483, "activity_lines": [ 12.537333, 12.753748, 13.470861, 14.183642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.21, "volume": 11966318, "typical_volume": 16900347.6, "trend": 14.853609, "fair_value": 14.678616, "relative_strength": -32.924819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.820877, "energy": 58.152378, "activity_lines": [ 12.096, 12.418084, 13.187774, 13.939044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.86, "volume": 9106426, "typical_volume": 15710228.9, "trend": 14.728276, "fair_value": 14.69485, "relative_strength": -27.347924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.449339, "energy": 56.194648, "activity_lines": [ 11.969333, 12.257172, 12.994402, 13.745908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.35, "volume": 14624105, "typical_volume": 15355439.15, "trend": 14.598276, "fair_value": 14.714539, "relative_strength": -27.565401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.839845, "energy": 54.269894, "activity_lines": [ 11.996, 12.226182, 12.871172, 13.59247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }