{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0172ea55-b48c-43f3-8dae-39eabe27d000", "symbol": "HYSRI", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy \u20ac High Yield SRI Fossil Free", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.104, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.135, "architecture_energy": 24.096, "architecture_maturity": 45.192, "architecture_confidence": 70.382, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.12, "rotation_up": 28.77, "upward_expansion": 57.85, "deceleration": 87.56, "rotation_down": 28.49, "downward_expansion": 19.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.301333, 11.3132, 11.292619, 11.262929 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.334, "trend_reference": 11.241333, "distance_from_trend": 0.008243, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.602263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.351972, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005322, "excess_performance": -0.16557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008243, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004007, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007905, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13352, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005322, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.404945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9615, "relative_activity": 0.585324, "balance": 0.404945, "dry_up": 1.203597, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005782, "annualized_volatility": 0.039897, "from_high_reference": -0.005615, "from_low_reference": 0.0557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.241333, "fair_value_reference": 10.602263, "structural_low": 10.736, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005284, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012069, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.015009, "worst_return": 0.000751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018434, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002634, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.018683, "worst_return": 0.014259, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033208, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008178, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040308, "worst_return": 0.02668, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.047806, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006942, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011211, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.019092, "active": 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25096.9, "trend": 11.157267, "fair_value": 10.362936, "relative_strength": -3.983578, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.181276, "energy": 44.904561, "activity_lines": [ 11.048267, 11.135745, 11.18061, 11.175514 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "close": 11.096, "volume": 7410, "typical_volume": 25313.5, "trend": 11.159067, "fair_value": 10.375141, "relative_strength": -7.28806, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.444702, "energy": 50.017679, "activity_lines": [ 11.046, 11.119164, 11.171752, 11.171561 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "close": 11.2, "volume": 29440, "typical_volume": 25893.4, "trend": 11.163333, "fair_value": 10.387788, "relative_strength": -9.835781, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.000224, "energy": 36.321509, "activity_lines": [ 11.090667, 11.124255, 11.172981, 11.174202 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.421602, "energy": 15.346679, "activity_lines": [ 11.2236, 11.203018, 11.189143, 11.193875 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 11.332, "volume": 6628, "typical_volume": 26020.45, "trend": 11.196467, "fair_value": 10.477045, "relative_strength": -10.923199, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.796526, "energy": 33.943015, "activity_lines": [ 11.262267, 11.233891, 11.201505, 11.203028 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 11.274, "volume": 3935, "typical_volume": 25876.45, "trend": 11.201267, "fair_value": 10.489372, "relative_strength": -10.830071, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.495205, "energy": 41.653133, "activity_lines": [ 11.2728, 11.248109, 11.208057, 11.20803 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 11.304, "volume": 1769, "typical_volume": 24570.15, "trend": 11.206933, "fair_value": 10.501801, "relative_strength": -13.002817, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.347762, "energy": 53.307928, "activity_lines": [ 11.2872, 11.262327, 11.217343, 11.214658 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.318, "volume": 1673, "typical_volume": 24354.1, "trend": 11.213133, "fair_value": 10.514788, "relative_strength": -14.708766, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.842831, "energy": 57.835357, "activity_lines": [ 11.302133, 11.275309, 11.227695, 11.221824 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.33, "volume": 773, "typical_volume": 16671.15, "trend": 11.219267, "fair_value": 10.527641, "relative_strength": -11.616933, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.789623, "energy": 62.535275, "activity_lines": [ 11.314267, 11.288327, 11.238962, 11.229363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.386, "volume": 356, "typical_volume": 15496.5, "trend": 11.226, "fair_value": 10.541301, "relative_strength": -13.391706, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.206166, "energy": 72.843613, "activity_lines": [ 11.339067, 11.310545, 11.255295, 11.24012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.346, "volume": 7999, "typical_volume": 15789.05, "trend": 11.2324, "fair_value": 10.553929, "relative_strength": -12.96686, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.509667, "energy": 70.709951, "activity_lines": [ 11.346933, 11.322109, 11.267257, 11.247862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.308, "volume": 35290, "typical_volume": 17324.95, "trend": 11.235533, "fair_value": 10.566269, "relative_strength": -11.660378, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.093625, "energy": 65.251632, "activity_lines": [ 11.337333, 11.323782, 11.275371, 11.25274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.256, "volume": 26868, "typical_volume": 18157.3, "trend": 11.237267, "fair_value": 10.577827, "relative_strength": -11.564427, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.400016, "energy": 33.120827, "activity_lines": [ 11.310133, 11.3148, 11.2784, 11.25406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.28, "volume": 7312, "typical_volume": 17183.5, "trend": 11.239267, "fair_value": 10.589865, "relative_strength": -11.59479, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.451659, "energy": 20.155894, "activity_lines": [ 11.295067, 11.309455, 11.283457, 11.256817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.334, "volume": 9615, "typical_volume": 16426.8, "trend": 11.241333, "fair_value": 10.602263, "relative_strength": -13.351972, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.135282, "energy": 24.096436, "activity_lines": [ 11.301333, 11.3132, 11.292619, 11.262929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }