{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0174e409-a137-4fe8-9a7c-689b1726395f", "symbol": "NOEJ", "name": "NORMA Group SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.561, "architecture_energy": 71.596, "architecture_maturity": 36.163, "architecture_confidence": 89.746, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.04, "rotation_up": 70.4, "upward_expansion": 90.76, "deceleration": 44.03, "rotation_down": 15.28, "downward_expansion": 15.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.494667, 18.109011, 17.535379, 17.00461 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.860001, "trend_reference": 16.370913, "distance_from_trend": 0.152043, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.074746, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251099, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.566267, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181704, "excess_performance": 0.117065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.152043, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085077, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251099, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107961, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.105663, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028759, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.170691, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 290766, "relative_activity": 0.762496, "balance": 2.170691, "dry_up": 0.688906, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05406, "annualized_volatility": 0.386625, "from_high_reference": -0.026832, "from_low_reference": 0.511218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.370913, "fair_value_reference": 15.074746, "structural_low": 13.78, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.006918, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.028209, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.273171, "worst_return": -0.229197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.155355, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.143862, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059519, "worst_return": -0.240807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.15051, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.186052, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.143237, "worst_return": -0.29166, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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53.389324, "energy": 33.332263, "activity_lines": [ 17.106866, 17.091272, 16.449876, 16.105135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.540001, "volume": 69001, "typical_volume": 419264.75, "trend": 15.740246, "fair_value": 14.971302, "relative_strength": 6.057775, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.652691, "energy": 39.12103, "activity_lines": [ 17.238373, 17.234774, 16.592221, 16.228861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.879999, "volume": 375042, "typical_volume": 418278.8, "trend": 15.85758, "fair_value": 14.98913, "relative_strength": 11.034322, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.676473, "energy": 50.94738, "activity_lines": [ 17.48188, 17.385548, 16.760281, 16.36691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.780001, "volume": 387262, "typical_volume": 411310.55, "trend": 16.002913, "fair_value": 15.010485, "relative_strength": 17.271117, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.139892, "energy": 70.087378, "activity_lines": [ 17.958935, 17.642141, 17.001103, 16.555453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.24, "volume": 165074, "typical_volume": 390637.95, "trend": 16.128913, "fair_value": 15.029651, "relative_strength": 12.397821, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.403912, "energy": 68.32393, "activity_lines": [ 18.126892, 17.76928, 17.176306, 16.699781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.24, "volume": 207712, "typical_volume": 383603.7, "trend": 16.246246, "fair_value": 15.050332, "relative_strength": 9.869891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.100994, "energy": 63.368277, "activity_lines": [ 18.253333, 17.887327, 17.334843, 16.83598 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.860001, "volume": 290766, "typical_volume": 381334.5, "trend": 16.370913, "fair_value": 15.074746, "relative_strength": 10.566267, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.561283, "energy": 71.59615, "activity_lines": [ 18.494667, 18.109011, 17.535379, 17.00461 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }