{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0175f7bd-6826-4eb9-8540-0a9aaf6f34d0", "symbol": "MKR", "name": "Manuka Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.235, "architecture_energy": 44.514, "architecture_maturity": 41.153, "architecture_confidence": 92.146, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.83, "rotation_up": 20.86, "upward_expansion": 5.56, "deceleration": 51.74, "rotation_down": 55.48, "downward_expansion": 78.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.078067, 0.079727, 0.086233, 0.093191 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.075, "trend_reference": 0.108167, "distance_from_trend": -0.306626, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.061301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.340147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.463706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.306626, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009645, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342495, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.967323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27313652, "relative_activity": 0.807915, "balance": 0.967323, "dry_up": 0.409455, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197949, "annualized_volatility": 0.854752, "from_high_reference": -0.673913, "from_low_reference": 1.205882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.108167, "fair_value_reference": 0.061301, "structural_low": 0.066, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.017235, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.822222, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.140351, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.136069, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.673469, "worst_return": -0.44, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.327179, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.352037, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.62963, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.296296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.228571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.52381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.745971, "energy": 59.134763, "activity_lines": [ 0.083067, 0.087436, 0.092852, 0.101559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.08, "volume": 7103342, "typical_volume": 39036613.3, "trend": 0.110633, "fair_value": 0.060846, "relative_strength": -8.741095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.816024, "energy": 43.545667, "activity_lines": [ 0.082667, 0.085109, 0.091005, 0.099602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.081, "volume": 9279417, "typical_volume": 36850397.4, "trend": 0.110733, "fair_value": 0.061012, "relative_strength": -8.040066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.887832, "energy": 37.112779, "activity_lines": [ 0.082533, 0.083182, 0.089514, 0.09769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.076, "volume": 11674360, "typical_volume": 34928759.25, "trend": 0.11, "fair_value": 0.061141, "relative_strength": -16.225598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.220331, "energy": 41.731814, "activity_lines": [ 0.0806, 0.081236, 0.087805, 0.095449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.075, "volume": 27313652, "typical_volume": 33807576.85, "trend": 0.108167, "fair_value": 0.061301, "relative_strength": -20.340147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.234949, "energy": 44.514366, "activity_lines": [ 0.078067, 0.079727, 0.086233, 0.093191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }