{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0178ad60-9ace-4aaf-86ae-76fea2bc8b36", "symbol": "TSMZ", "name": "DIREXION DAILY TSM BEAR 1X SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.882, "architecture_energy": 24.518, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.675, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.4, "rotation_up": 27.3, "upward_expansion": 19.71, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 32.28, "downward_expansion": 60.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.107807, 8.01247, 8.195712, 8.6196 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.8947, "trend_reference": 9.192334, "distance_from_trend": -0.141165, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.229297, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.481611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.86278, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.238053, "excess_performance": -0.425506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138179, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.481611, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000156, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.378628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097447, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633467, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 455999, "relative_activity": 1.081324, "balance": 0.633467, "dry_up": 1.440806, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089, "annualized_volatility": 0.334807, "from_high_reference": -0.52768, "from_low_reference": 0.119022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.192334, "fair_value_reference": 15.229297, "structural_low": 7.055, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043809, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.045375, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.058837, "worst_return": -0.111799, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.190451, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.377729, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.190451, "worst_return": -0.190451, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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8.710571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.8947, "volume": 455999, "typical_volume": 421704.15, "trend": 9.192334, "fair_value": 15.229297, "relative_strength": -37.86278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.881592, "energy": 24.518471, "activity_lines": [ 8.107807, 8.01247, 8.195712, 8.6196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }