{ "ticker": { "uuid": "017e5641-aa5b-4795-8734-d970c9b8a0e2", "symbol": "AMZ", "name": "Amazon.com, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.431, "architecture_energy": 16.908, "architecture_maturity": 26.517, "architecture_confidence": 87.715, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.89, "rotation_up": 22.35, "upward_expansion": 48.52, "deceleration": 90.59, "rotation_down": 33.28, "downward_expansion": 23.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 220.383333, 222.995455, 221.059525, 219.464775 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 218.449997, "trend_reference": 213.625667, "distance_from_trend": 0.022583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 184.028462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187045, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.201906, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.253299, "excess_performance": 0.113936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054156, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029391, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032019, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025104, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.253299, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.15838, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129615, "relative_activity": 1.982584, "balance": 1.15838, "dry_up": 1.604185, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052292, "annualized_volatility": 0.349314, "from_high_reference": -0.092627, "from_low_reference": 0.316916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 213.625667, "fair_value_reference": 184.028462, "structural_low": 173.580002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.038482, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.038331, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.148977, "worst_return": -0.176721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.10094, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.086378, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.255765, "worst_return": -0.091745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065429, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.076798, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.506217, "worst_return": -0.051335, "sufficient": 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182.212244, "relative_strength": 1.759826, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.967726, "energy": 30.862021, "activity_lines": [ 225.513336, 224.658184, 221.484526, 217.695206 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 220.649994, "volume": 86777, "typical_volume": 79240.7, "trend": 210.769667, "fair_value": 182.779359, "relative_strength": 3.82798, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.343489, "energy": 19.299738, "activity_lines": [ 223.03, 224.388182, 221.414287, 218.444711 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 220.350006, "volume": 118631, "typical_volume": 69141.3, "trend": 212.219334, "fair_value": 183.401347, "relative_strength": 4.696309, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.459819, "energy": 15.182771, "activity_lines": [ 221.773335, 223.912729, 221.328811, 219.062797 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 218.449997, "volume": 129615, "typical_volume": 65376.8, "trend": 213.625667, "fair_value": 184.028462, "relative_strength": 3.201906, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.431208, "energy": 16.908462, "activity_lines": [ 220.383333, 222.995455, 221.059525, 219.464775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }