{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0184dcd8-6c41-4708-97ae-d3f6e1aa1af8", "symbol": "JEQA", "name": "JPM Nasdaq Equity Premium Income Active UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.646, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.667, "architecture_energy": 29.04, "architecture_maturity": 62.039, "architecture_confidence": 80.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.6, "rotation_up": 32.42, "upward_expansion": 61.89, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 31.6, "downward_expansion": 23.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.852333, 28.007818, 27.735071, 27.261301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.365, "trend_reference": 26.684333, "distance_from_trend": 0.062983, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.705978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148103, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.485398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126266, "excess_performance": -0.044626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062983, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037917, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148103, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038159, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021716, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126266, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 17.27073, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3630, "relative_activity": 1.429894, "balance": 17.27073, "dry_up": 0.761527, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02438, "annualized_volatility": 0.126479, "from_high_reference": -0.013734, "from_low_reference": 0.234066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.684333, "fair_value_reference": 24.705978, "structural_low": 24.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008233, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 23.674999, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 23.825001, "volume": 5886, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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27.057833, 26.634097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 28.465, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 2439.35, "trend": 26.256833, "fair_value": 24.520747, "relative_strength": -4.118955, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.190206, "energy": 71.337101, "activity_lines": [ 28.294667, 27.985091, 27.246714, 26.783527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.645, "volume": 2211, "typical_volume": 2540.1, "trend": 26.376667, "fair_value": 24.567614, "relative_strength": -3.074638, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.280008, "energy": 71.84495, "activity_lines": [ 28.451, 28.163818, 27.436429, 26.937602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.695, "volume": 538, "typical_volume": 2534.95, "trend": 26.457667, "fair_value": 24.602753, "relative_strength": -4.861432, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.769202, "energy": 62.628919, "activity_lines": [ 28.234667, 28.13, 27.520214, 27.022656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.834999, "volume": 3149, "typical_volume": 2670.7, "trend": 26.543333, "fair_value": 24.638667, "relative_strength": -4.170209, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.728721, "energy": 49.758628, "activity_lines": [ 28.065, 28.106, 27.606667, 27.111516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.105, "volume": 416, "typical_volume": 2603.6, "trend": 26.605, "fair_value": 24.665769, "relative_strength": -7.12781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.93883, "energy": 26.425418, "activity_lines": [ 27.713666, 27.940091, 27.614119, 27.147753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.365, "volume": 3630, "typical_volume": 2538.65, "trend": 26.684333, "fair_value": 24.705978, "relative_strength": -5.485398, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.667134, "energy": 29.040293, "activity_lines": [ 27.852333, 28.007818, 27.735071, 27.261301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }