{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01897c04-8f6a-4f90-ab5c-17328dd6c214", "symbol": "ONIT", "name": "Onity Group Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.221, "architecture_energy": 9.212, "architecture_maturity": 24.773, "architecture_confidence": 60.748, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.02, "rotation_up": 29.58, "upward_expansion": 26.47, "deceleration": 45.76, "rotation_down": 24.16, "downward_expansion": 46.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.817333, 38.552545, 38.515381, 39.118151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.39, "trend_reference": 40.661667, "distance_from_trend": -0.031274, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.505897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.955128, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.068133, "excess_performance": -0.193758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046501, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006416, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009857, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068133, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.531572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 424823, "relative_activity": 1.261759, "balance": 1.531572, "dry_up": 0.924441, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104513, "annualized_volatility": 0.459481, "from_high_reference": -0.271904, "from_low_reference": 0.193636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.661667, "fair_value_reference": 33.505897, "structural_low": 33.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.002744, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.016312, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.342796, "worst_return": -0.257026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.012221, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.007985, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.443047, "worst_return": -0.185005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.177806, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.131466, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.45988, "worst_return": -0.174592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034279, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.008244, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.314168, "worst_return": -0.253139, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023648, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.186515, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149502, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069353, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004994, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147013, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033922, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.57165, "energy": 34.866597, "activity_lines": [ 36.658, 36.914909, 38.672048, 40.078989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 38.96, "volume": 320307, "typical_volume": 342677.55, "trend": 41.740667, "fair_value": 33.296859, "relative_strength": -13.818297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.119109, "energy": 23.648575, "activity_lines": [ 37.532, 37.009636, 38.601571, 39.889548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.73, "volume": 230642, "typical_volume": 342759.6, "trend": 41.545667, "fair_value": 33.355641, "relative_strength": -15.245342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.75011, "energy": 18.182952, "activity_lines": [ 38.034667, 37.195273, 38.540952, 39.695312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.81, "volume": 319069, "typical_volume": 344232.5, "trend": 41.422, "fair_value": 33.398269, "relative_strength": -9.178753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.621681, "energy": 15.043423, "activity_lines": [ 39.104, 37.922909, 38.694714, 39.647849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.44, "volume": 216616, "typical_volume": 339747.65, "trend": 41.263667, "fair_value": 33.430833, "relative_strength": -11.496769, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.397487, "energy": 17.436274, "activity_lines": [ 39.438, 38.366909, 38.723238, 39.519978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.66, "volume": 284496, "typical_volume": 336717.1, "trend": 41.014667, "fair_value": 33.45, "relative_strength": -18.330063, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.981795, "energy": 17.367137, "activity_lines": [ 38.660667, 38.232364, 38.486714, 39.222968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.39, "volume": 424823, "typical_volume": 336691.2, "trend": 40.661667, "fair_value": 33.505897, "relative_strength": -14.955128, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.220913, "energy": 9.212414, "activity_lines": [ 38.817333, 38.552545, 38.515381, 39.118151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }