{ "ticker": { "uuid": "018982e7-b7c3-4531-8cce-94615a9fe703", "symbol": "601398", "name": "Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.048, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.934, "architecture_energy": 67.624, "architecture_maturity": 6.718, "architecture_confidence": 79.743, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.73, "rotation_up": 70.8, "upward_expansion": 88.44, "deceleration": 44.84, "rotation_down": 11.58, "downward_expansion": 17.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.688667, 7.533818, 7.427108, 7.356517 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.53, "trend_reference": 7.282567, "distance_from_trend": 0.033976, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.035526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.009544, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062615, "excess_performance": 0.105819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033976, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011739, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247613, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030095, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111838, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.521048, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2528356526, "relative_activity": 1.819377, "balance": 1.521048, "dry_up": 1.789106, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043413, "annualized_volatility": 0.21992, "from_high_reference": -0.077206, "from_low_reference": 0.124665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.282567, "fair_value_reference": 6.035526, "structural_low": 6.695325, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.012844, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.008909, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.128358, "worst_return": -0.094463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.074385, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.061963, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.118199, "worst_return": -0.081847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.124473, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.132698, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.219754, "worst_return": -0.063224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.18614, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.156318, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.389405, "worst_return": -0.034432, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.233978, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.092837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011628, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.374181, "energy": 77.537147, "activity_lines": [ 7.690667, 7.516182, 7.410172, 7.341029 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.53, "volume": 2528356526, "typical_volume": 1389682661.0, "trend": 7.282567, "fair_value": 6.035526, "relative_strength": 3.009544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.934294, "energy": 67.623685, "activity_lines": [ 7.688667, 7.533818, 7.427108, 7.356517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }