{ "ticker": { "uuid": "018eaca0-b5d0-4d61-8aed-9174547048fe", "symbol": "TPC", "name": "TPC Consolidated Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.788, "architecture_energy": 66.761, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.56, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.73, "rotation_down": 60.73, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.26, 3.338, 3.503381, 3.683221 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.2, "trend_reference": 4.050504, "distance_from_trend": -0.209975, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.280876, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.560492, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.794931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.434318, "excess_performance": -0.498024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209975, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173947, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.560492, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145673, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397949, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.434318, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.23385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2791, "relative_activity": 2.045213, "balance": 0.23385, "dry_up": 2.705089, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059615, "annualized_volatility": 0.816739, "from_high_reference": -0.586563, "from_low_reference": 0.269841 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.050504, "fair_value_reference": 7.280876, "structural_low": 2.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.005356, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.023668, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.818183, "worst_return": -0.269231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.084375, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.10844, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.910828, "worst_return": -0.418519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04631, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016705, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.635973, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048563, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002215, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", 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4.317704, "fair_value": 7.29139, "relative_strength": -35.250892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.804135, "energy": 60.224611, "activity_lines": [ 3.463333, 3.462909, 3.646333, 3.877076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.45, "volume": 6633, "typical_volume": 1266.55, "trend": 4.239363, "fair_value": 7.289475, "relative_strength": -33.82386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.677829, "energy": 58.242631, "activity_lines": [ 3.46, 3.454364, 3.619048, 3.821095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.05, "volume": 5342, "typical_volume": 1225.1, "trend": 4.147689, "fair_value": 7.284667, "relative_strength": -41.80506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.475476, "energy": 71.528134, "activity_lines": [ 3.32, 3.377636, 3.552, 3.744362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.2, "volume": 2791, "typical_volume": 1364.65, "trend": 4.050504, "fair_value": 7.280876, "relative_strength": -39.794931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.787797, "energy": 66.761292, "activity_lines": [ 3.26, 3.338, 3.503381, 3.683221 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }