{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0192933f-72ca-4580-9c2a-25dd7bdc75af", "symbol": "SNWS", "name": "Smiths News plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.527, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.789, "architecture_energy": 42.55, "architecture_maturity": 15.554, "architecture_confidence": 86.798, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.03, "rotation_up": 56.12, "upward_expansion": 80.51, "deceleration": 50.99, "rotation_down": 15.77, "downward_expansion": 7.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.709333, 0.700655, 0.684357, 0.675418 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.714, "trend_reference": 0.667648, "distance_from_trend": 0.069426, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.501317, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424248, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.302914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056582, "excess_performance": 0.005347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069426, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029584, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.424248, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033345, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053029, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010752, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056582, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.694501, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6765095, "relative_activity": 4.039884, "balance": 0.694501, "dry_up": 2.239404, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076768, "annualized_volatility": 0.287288, "from_high_reference": -0.060526, "from_low_reference": 0.489436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.667648, "fair_value_reference": 0.501317, "structural_low": 0.580339, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.007183, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.001532, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.261746, "worst_return": -0.160002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00867, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.030618, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.265051, "worst_return": -0.101795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.094068, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.052397, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.331052, "worst_return": -0.064668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 0.663835, "fair_value": 0.493839, "relative_strength": 7.213965, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.450697, "energy": 46.482869, "activity_lines": [ 0.695467, 0.681961, 0.67093, 0.666455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.69, "volume": 1928558, "typical_volume": 1744369.5, "trend": 0.664938, "fair_value": 0.496181, "relative_strength": 4.079015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.834477, "energy": 43.296172, "activity_lines": [ 0.693733, 0.685145, 0.673759, 0.668143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.73, "volume": 3262712, "typical_volume": 1440153.3, "trend": 0.666308, "fair_value": 0.498826, "relative_strength": 8.326539, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.026725, "energy": 43.483407, "activity_lines": [ 0.706, 0.69506, 0.680051, 0.672341 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.714, "volume": 6765095, "typical_volume": 1674576.65, "trend": 0.667648, "fair_value": 0.501317, "relative_strength": 5.302914, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.789035, "energy": 42.549857, "activity_lines": [ 0.709333, 0.700655, 0.684357, 0.675418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }