{ "ticker": { "uuid": "01975fc4-25c9-4c5b-9d56-90988a333096", "symbol": "CRUS", "name": "Cirrus Logic Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -50.703, "architecture_energy": 70.476, "architecture_maturity": 18.531, "architecture_confidence": 78.212, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.21, "rotation_up": 16.37, "upward_expansion": 23.28, "deceleration": 43.15, "rotation_down": 78.38, "downward_expansion": 67.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 131.276667, 139.198182, 149.751619, 150.27614 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 124.92, "trend_reference": 148.122167, "distance_from_trend": -0.156642, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 112.135609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.114008, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.660551, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.125088, "excess_performance": -0.312541, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156642, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061271, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.114008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.503592, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347585, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.26392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4908912, "relative_activity": 1.553485, "balance": 0.26392, "dry_up": 1.192551, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108149, "annualized_volatility": 0.357213, "from_high_reference": -0.307616, "from_low_reference": 0.200346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 148.122167, "fair_value_reference": 112.135609, "structural_low": 119.845, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020299, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010558, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.148096, "worst_return": -0.025423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032836, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.058648, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03629, "worst_return": 0.023306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030662, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01066, "worst_return": -0.069918, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103914, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034416, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083098, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063524, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.488715, "energy": 17.701589, "activity_lines": [ 151.395333, 157.086, 158.823143, 154.394118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 137.98, "volume": 3384389, "typical_volume": 2969366.7, "trend": 147.2695, "fair_value": 111.216122, "relative_strength": -7.640109, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.255993, "energy": 35.379243, "activity_lines": [ 145.89, 152.911818, 157.167048, 153.831011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 133.61, "volume": 3022657, "typical_volume": 2992031.15, "trend": 147.694167, "fair_value": 111.549904, "relative_strength": -9.244235, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.16702, "energy": 53.482555, "activity_lines": [ 140.668667, 148.555636, 155.109714, 152.949753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 129.35, "volume": 3757574, "typical_volume": 3052550.15, "trend": 148.016833, "fair_value": 111.849904, "relative_strength": -12.641737, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.246294, "energy": 62.609356, "activity_lines": [ 136.139333, 143.899455, 152.631238, 151.766258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 124.92, "volume": 4908912, "typical_volume": 3159934.75, "trend": 148.122167, "fair_value": 112.135609, "relative_strength": -19.660551, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.702981, "energy": 70.476302, "activity_lines": [ 131.276667, 139.198182, 149.751619, 150.27614 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }