{ "ticker": { "uuid": "019d1d1a-98c3-45e3-883e-fb6ba97e588d", "symbol": "SVM", "name": "Silvercorp Metals Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.793, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.017, "architecture_energy": 35.875, "architecture_maturity": 4.258, "architecture_confidence": 73.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.88, "rotation_up": 18.18, "upward_expansion": 7.4, "deceleration": 44.03, "rotation_down": 54.88, "downward_expansion": 78.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.108, 14.265818, 15.171025, 15.388486 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.030001, "trend_reference": 15.589936, "distance_from_trend": 0.028228, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.397201, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.167036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.900623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125702, "excess_performance": 0.005281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028228, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086256, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.167036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.696609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.119006, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.477832, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125702, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976292, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3488400, "relative_activity": 0.959674, "balance": 0.976292, "dry_up": 1.135128, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118505, "annualized_volatility": 0.730155, "from_high_reference": -0.257479, "from_low_reference": 1.717209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.589936, "fair_value_reference": 7.397201, "structural_low": 11.94, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.043807, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.021658, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.244499, "worst_return": -0.225605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.048466, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.055081, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.194103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.184913, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.220847, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.476916, "worst_return": -0.315504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.933238, "relative_strength": 21.84418, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.458531, "energy": 16.966447, "activity_lines": [ 15.859282, 16.500469, 16.329008, 15.911791 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 15.47, "volume": 836800, "typical_volume": 4938120.0, "trend": 15.145269, "fair_value": 7.008648, "relative_strength": 17.838645, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.232939, "energy": 14.788892, "activity_lines": [ 15.670846, 16.248306, 16.270684, 15.942397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.79, "volume": 227800, "typical_volume": 4557600.0, "trend": 15.273269, "fair_value": 7.080203, "relative_strength": 10.748924, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.349875, "energy": 13.783877, "activity_lines": [ 15.31, 15.910371, 16.141741, 15.919476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.48, "volume": 4908400, "typical_volume": 4558195.0, "trend": 15.349603, "fair_value": 7.140966, "relative_strength": 0.147249, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.988036, "energy": 39.630079, "activity_lines": [ 14.692, 15.375948, 15.888893, 15.803781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.52, "volume": 6214200, "typical_volume": 4482060.0, "trend": 15.366936, "fair_value": 7.195512, "relative_strength": -7.493829, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.060552, "energy": 61.005278, "activity_lines": [ 13.842, 14.724315, 15.556712, 15.621226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.61, "volume": 4204100, "typical_volume": 4377465.0, "trend": 15.428936, "fair_value": 7.25755, "relative_strength": -0.490315, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.809568, "energy": 57.233784, "activity_lines": [ 13.574667, 14.379259, 15.359007, 15.507876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.03, "volume": 2598000, "typical_volume": 4203140.0, "trend": 15.481603, "fair_value": 7.316752, "relative_strength": -5.051195, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.725624, "energy": 69.262177, "activity_lines": [ 13.26, 14.020231, 15.117825, 15.353106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.030001, "volume": 3488400, "typical_volume": 3634985.0, "trend": 15.589936, "fair_value": 7.397201, "relative_strength": 11.900623, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.017258, "energy": 35.874911, "activity_lines": [ 14.108, 14.265818, 15.171025, 15.388486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }